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Container ship in front of Hamburg: Germany's neighbors are initially failing to drive the economic recovery
Photo: Kerstin Bittner / imago images / Westend61
For example, there is Berlin.
After decades of subsidies, the capital's economy has grown faster than the national German average in recent years.
Foreign countries also helped: the export share of Berlin's industrial sales has risen almost twice as much as the German average since reunification.
Pharmaceutical products
made in Berlin in
particular
found their way around the world.
The positive development was "suddenly stopped" by the corona crisis, according to a study by the Investitionsbank Berlin.
It is true that pharmaceutical exports rose by almost half in times of the pandemic.
The bottom line, however, was that Berlin's exports declined in the first seven months of the year.
The minus 20 percent was particularly severe compared to the USA - the most important export market for Berlin and Germany as a whole.
In other parts of Germany too, companies are now looking anxiously abroad.
In the past few months, German exports had risen sharply, in some cases, with many indications of the hoped-for V-shaped recovery.
But now the number of infected people is increasing again both in Germany and among many of its trading partners - and with it the risk of another collapse in demand.
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The concerns are reflected in the so-called export expectations of the industry.
Once a month, the Munich-based Ifo Institute asks around 2,300 companies whether they will sell more, the same amount or fewer products abroad in the next three months and creates a balance from positive and negative expectations.
It had recently picked up again after a massive slump in the spring.
In October, however, export expectations fell significantly - from 10.3 to 6.6 points.
"In normal times that would not be too much of a movement," says Ifo economic chief Timo Wollmershäuser.
But times are not normal and the economy is very nervous.
In Wollmershäuer's view, the downward trend shows a premonition among entrepreneurs: "There is something on the horizon."
In the worst case, a second wave that hits the economy even more than the first.
Nothing is safe in the US
In the case of the
USA
, Germany's most important customer country,
the future is extremely uncertain
.
The US economy has recovered in recent months - which US President Donald Trump has seen as confirmation of his course.
But more than 225,000 deaths and an increase in new infections of 20 percent compared to the previous week show that the pandemic in the USA has by no means been defeated.
There is also the risk of a domestic political crisis if Trump does not accept a possible election defeat.
If Trump's pompous announcements had had a little more substance, at least German exporters would now have to worry less.
After all, Trump won the last election with a promise to restore US industry to its old strength.
German mechanical engineering companies, who in the past have already made substantial profits from the industrialization of the emerging countries, could have benefited from such an upswing.
However, a new analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy comes to the conclusion that US industrial production is "only mediocre" in an international comparison.
None of the industries protected by Trump with protective tariffs had grown above average, in the auto industry the positive tendencies under Trump had even weakened.
Overall, "no Trump effect can be seen" in US industry.
The view of Germany's second most important export country,
France,
is also worrying
.
Compared to the previous week, the number of infections rose by 46 percent, President Emmanuel Macron has again declared a health emergency in view of the second wave.
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Even the first lockdown hit France's economy hard.
The renewed restrictions threaten the existence of many companies all the more, especially in the country's famous gastronomy.
According to forecasts, France's economy is likely to shrink by a good nine percent this year - the worst slump in decades.
As a motor for the economic recovery, Germany’s neighbor will therefore fail for the time being.
Hope China
The situation is more positive for the third largest buyer of German exports:
China
.
The presumed country of origin of the corona pandemic is now again presenting impressive growth figures.
In view of communist planning requirements, these should be treated with caution, but are supported by indicators that are less susceptible to manipulation, such as electricity consumption or car sales figures.
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German car companies were also pleased about the latter, which temporarily sold around half of their cars in China during the lockdown in the West.
"If you look at the Chinese figures, you know why the mood among German manufacturers is quite good," says Wollmershäuser.
With a view to the rest of the world, however, the automotive industry is also becoming more cautious.
The value for their export expectations fell by eight points.
The view of other European countries is also less optimistic: In the
Netherlands
, Germany's fifth most important export country, the number of cases is rising steeply again, and patients have to be flown back to Germany for treatment.
Britain
, number six, has now recorded more than 45,000 deaths and the number of infections continues to rise with an increase of 24 percent.
The prospect of a hard Brexit is also unsettling the economy.
Will the second lockdown be milder?
No country was hit as hard by the first corona wave as
Italy
; more than 37,000 people have died so far.
After the situation had calmed down in the meantime, the numbers are going up again.
The government again imposed curfews, against which protests, some of which have been violent, have taken place in various cities over the past few days.
The pandemic also hit the country hard economically.
"In Italy industrial production has really been cut down," says Wollmershäuer.
However, this no longer appears necessary for infection protection - especially since many industrial workplaces are now protected by Plexiglas or other devices.
Even with new lockdowns, the manufacturing industry could therefore avoid complete production stops this time, the Ifo expert suspects.
"That will be one of the last measures to be taken."
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