The economy "must neither stop nor collapse", insisted Emmanuel Macron, this Wednesday, October 28, during his televised speech.
If the French will have to go through a second confinement to stop the Covid-19 epidemic, the device will however be slightly relaxed to allow the activity to "continue".
Teleworking "will be generalized again", "wherever possible", stressed Emmanuel Macron.
But, unlike the first spring containment, factories, construction sites, farms and public services will remain open.
VIDEO. Emmanuel Macron asks the French to re-define himself
Emmanuel Macron asks the French to re-define himself
Despite everything, and without great surprise, non-essential businesses closed during the confinement decided in March, in particular bars and restaurants, will have to lower the curtain "for at least two weeks".
New "cash flow measures"
While the government will detail this Thursday the aid measures for businesses, the Head of State has already recalled that the measures in force - partial unemployment, exemption from charges, aid of 10,000 euros per month for businesses of less than 50 employees closed administratively… - will continue.
But new "cash flow measures" will complete the current system to help companies whose fixed charges and rents weigh heavily.
A tax credit will thus be put in place for owners of commercial leases who will lower the rent for at least three months.
Finally, a plan to support the self-employed, VSEs and SMEs facing this second wave will be put in place.
The bill will be colossal for the State.
The 100 billion euros of the recovery plan will not be enough to finance this second wave.
"A fourth amending finance bill will take place before the end of the year," assures a senior official from Bercy.
We must review the envelopes, especially that of the solidarity fund, which will soar.
But will all this be enough?
This Wednesday evening, the European stock markets fell sharply, fearing the upcoming restrictive measures (−3.37% in Paris, −4.17% in Frankfurt, −2.55% in London).
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It must be said that the repercussions of a new confinement will be massive for our economy.
The Minister in charge of the Budget, Olivier Dussopt, thus estimated that “when activity stops for a whole month, it is between 2 and 2.5 points of GDP that we lose.
It is more than 10 billion euros of intervention expenditure and it is at least 10 billion euros of loss of tax revenue ”.
Since March, the state has lost 70 billion euros in tax revenue.
Layoff plans multiply
And if public finances will sink into the red, it is the closed businesses that should be taken by the throat in the coming weeks.
Because without any consumption, with debts to honor and a dry cash, the situation is much more complex than in the spring for VSEs and SMEs.
Last June, Unédic was already anticipating 900,000 job cuts and 630,000 additional unemployed.
Reconfinement: traders are playing for survival
Layoff plans are multiplying: La Halle, André, Naf Naf, Camaïeu… This Wednesday, the men's ready-to-wear brand Celio, placed in the safeguard procedure at the end of June, announced the closure of 102 stores and 383 jobs in less.
In bad shape before the Covid crisis, the brand, yet followed by the Interministerial Committee for Industrial Restructuring (CIRI) of Bercy, has failed to recover.