Annabella quiroga
11/02/2020 11:48
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 11/02/2020 11:48
Private analysts anticipate that
October inflation was above 3%.
In this way, the price index begins to take the lead and in the last part of the year it wins the race against the official dollar, which last month rose 2.7% in the wholesale segment.
The consulting firm LCG forecasts an inflation of 3.2% for the month that just ended.
"In the second and third week of October, when the exchange gap rose sharply, there
was a sharp acceleration
in the price of food and beverages," says economist Guido Lorenzo, director of the consultancy.
For C&T Consultores, inflation in October was 3.3%.
And for IPC Online it reached 2.87%.
For the Central Bank Expectations Survey (REM), the index will be 3.5%.
The official data will be known on November 12.
"We expect monthly inflation to remain relatively stable (2.6-2.7%) in October, although
significant risks are observed
," says consulting firm Seido.
"On the one hand, the statistical drag is low and regulated prices will remain frozen at least until the end of the year. On the other hand, the official exchange rate continues to depreciate at the same rate, which prevents a further deceleration of general inflation. In addition , a price adjustment of the items included in the Care Prices and Maximum Prices programs could have a broader impact, as seen in mid-July. "
In an Argentina with diverse exchange rates,
parallel dollars continue to win the competition.
For example, only in October, the blue dollar increased 15%, despite the retreat of the last days of the month, when it cut the peak of $ 195 that it had touched on the 24th of last month and then fell back to $ 169. In the year, blue increased 125%.
Minister Martín Guzmán insists that the blue dollar does not impact prices, although it is clear that it
affects expectations
that also boost inflation.
On the other hand,
the official dollar rose 30% in the wholesale segment
, which is the one used to import and therefore has a direct transfer to prices.
The retail dollar
went from $ 82 to $ 138
in these 10 months: a 68% increase boosted by the 35% surcharge that was applied in September as an advance payment of income tax.
Inflation had been walking several steps behind the dollar.
Until September accumulates a rise of 22.3%.
With the October record, it
would touch 26%
, which is why it has been advancing four percentage points behind the official dollar.
The trend began to reverse in September, when the INDEC Consumer Price Index gave 2.9%, against a 2.6% rise in the currency.
And it would be consolidating in October with inflation at 3.2%, according to the average of the consulting firms, and the dollar at 2.7%.
In the future this trend would strengthen.
The REM for November expects an inflation of 3.8% and for December, one of 4%.
Thus,
the year would close at 36.9%.
In turn, they anticipate that the dollar will be located in December at
$ 83.8, a rise of 6.4%.
AQ
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