The reform of unemployment insurance, if it applied without modifications in April 2021, would affect 1.2 million people in the first year by a delayed opening of rights or a reduction in their compensation, according to a note from Unédic for the social partners.
Read also: Unemployment insurance: the application of the reform postponed again for three months
If its entry into force was postponed by the executive from January to April due to the crisis, the reform, decided in 2019, has not been abandoned and is the subject of consultation with the social partners to manage the impact.
In particular, it provides for a hardening of 4 to 6 months of work to obtain rights, a modification of the method of calculating allowances and the introduction of a degression after six months for high incomes.
In this note, which was presented to its office on Wednesday, Unédic updated its figures taking into account "
three effects of the crisis
": "
an increase in compensation payments
" due to the end of fixed-term contracts and upcoming economic layoffs;
"
A decrease in the resumption of short-term activity in the course of compensation, which results in a lower affiliation during a possible new opening of rights
", and "
a slowing down of exits towards sustainable employment
".
47% of those who would open rights
Consequently, Unédic estimates that, "
among the 2.56 million people who would open a right between April 2021 and March 2022
", the reform would affect 47%, "
or 1.2 million
".
Among them, 470,000 would see their opening of rights delayed or canceled, due to the passage from 4 to 6 months, a measure that would particularly penalize young people under 26 who have lost a fixed-term contract or an interim contract.
Of these 470,000, 150,000 would also see their allocation also decrease compared to what they could have under the current rules.
In addition, 690,000 people would become eligible on the same date, but would see their allowance decrease.
And finally 43,000 people would be affected by the degression.
Of the 840,000 new entrants who would receive a lower allowance (than with the current rules), the decrease in their monthly compensation would be on average 24%, from 902 to 689 euros net.
However, their compensation would last longer, 18 months to 12 months.
Compared to the current rules, the reform would lead to lower spending to the tune of one billion in 2021 and 2.67 billion in 2022. Spending would however continue to rise sharply due to the crisis, going from 35 billion in 2019 to 38 billion. , 4 billion in 2021.
In this note, Unédic also tests several scenarios for adjusting the rules that could be the subject of discussions between unions, employers and government during their next consultation meeting on November 12.
