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Fitter in a ZF Friedrichshafen plant: The manufacturing industry supports the economy
Photo:
Felix Kästle / DPA
The Advisory Council of the Federal Government around the Freiburg economist Lars Feld assumes that the corona pandemic will go smoothly for the German economy.
Regardless of the November shutdown, the economic downturn will be less severe than in the financial crisis, according to the economy.
The gross domestic product is likely to collapse by 5.1 percent this year, said a person who is familiar with the forecasts of the Advisory Council to the Reuters news agency.
The economists are more confident than the federal government.
So far, it has assumed a decline in gross domestic product of five and a half percent.
In the summer, the head of economic wise men still revised downwards his forecasts for the development of economic output in Germany.
At that time there was talk of a decline of between six and seven percent.
He now seems to be much more optimistic.
"Acting quickly and decisively in the crisis"
According to the "Süddeutsche Zeitung", which first reported on the panel of experts' new assessments, economic practices are assuming comparatively minor economic consequences from the closings of the hospitality industry, culture and sport.
"Politicians acted quickly and decisively during the crisis," the newspaper quotes from the 500-page annual report of the economic wise men.
Even if the closings continue in December and parts of the retail trade such as car dealerships have to close, only a small additional decline in economic output can be expected - as long as the industry can continue to operate.
However, economic development abroad also plays a major role for the export-oriented German economy.
The important German auto industry had recently been able to recover from the corona slump thanks to the rapid economic recovery in China.
Germany's top car lobbyist, however, warns her industry against hastily ticking off the corona crisis.
In view of the increasing number of cases, according to Hildegard Müller, there is no reason to celebrate.
"Unfortunately, we have no reason to raise our forecasts," said the President of the Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA).
"On the contrary, if the corona development continues like this, we are more likely to notice that people are very insecure again. And not only do we notice this in buyer behavior, but other industries as well."
At the moment, according to Müller, "the mood is better than the situation".
Economists also fear a long shadow of the crisis.
They are no longer assuming such a deep slump as in the summer - but only expect growth of 3.7 percent for 2021.
In June they were still assuming 4.9 percent for the coming year.
The annual report of the council of experts is to be officially published on Wednesday and handed over to the federal government.
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