Consumption in China accelerated again in October, with retail sales at their highest since the epidemic, thanks in particular to holidays and state incentives, authorities said on Monday.
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With the exception of localized outbreaks, the country has largely contained the Covid-19 since the spring, with radical measures of containment, movement monitoring and even quarantine.
Retail sales did not return to positive territory until August (+ 0.5%), after historic plunges in January and February (-20.5%), against a backdrop of consumer wait-and-see attitude towards the economy .
But they further accelerated their progress in October (+ 4.3%), in the wake of September (+ 3.3%), announced Monday at a press conference the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS).
This is certainly a lower level than that expected (+ 5.0%) by analysts surveyed by the Bloomberg agency, but which still allows to continue the progression started three months ago.
An acceleration to be credited in particular to the National Day holidays (October 1 to 8), which offered the Chinese an opportunity to go on vacation and spend their money in hotels, restaurants and tourist sites.
Post-Covid recovery in China is on track
For its part, industrial production was registered in October up 6.9% over one year, according to the SNB, remaining at the level of September.
"Overall, the post-Covid recovery in China is on track, regardless of the development of a viable vaccine," the ANZ bank said Monday in a note.
"By the end of 2020, we expect a more pronounced - albeit gradual - recovery in the service sector and a steady improvement in retail sales," said Bank Nomura, which forecasts GDP growth of 5, 7% over one year in the fourth quarter.
Declining unemployment
On the employment front, the unemployment rate continued to decline in October, according to the SNB: it stood at 5.3%, against 5.4% the previous month.
A sign of hope for the young graduates entering this year on a labor market still weakened by the epidemic, which has affected businesses and businesses.
As for investment in fixed capital, its growth was posted over the first 10 months of the year up by 1.8%, continuing its recovery there too.
"The national economy is still recovering, with multiple challenges to overcome before a full recovery," however conceded Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the BNS on Monday.
Bank Nomura points in particular to the resurgence of the epidemic in Europe and the United States or the uncertainty of Sino-American relations, which could limit Chinese exports and investments.
