Natacha Esquivel
11/20/2020 12:38
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 11/20/2020 12:38 PM
After going up and down by 10 or 20 pesos a day, as of Monday the blue dollar was ironed at around $ 160/163 (this Friday it falls by $ 2 to $ 161).
What happened?
Has the economy finally got under way?
Were policies announced that the market applauded?
There were those, such as the release of foreign currency for companies that invest in the Gas Plan or progress in negotiations with the IMF, but also in the opposite direction, such as the half-sanction of the so-called Wealth Tax.
So?
No one doubts that the drop from the $ 195 that it reached in blue on October 23, to the floor of $ 149 ten days ago, was due to
government intervention
, both in the stock exchange market, selling cheap bonds to lower the cash with liqui and asking friendly brokerage houses to leave the market, or the parallel, with calls to operators or exchange houses to make offers at low prices.
There was talk in the market of an exchange house based in the suburbs that aggressively intervened in that market, with positions of $ 5 or $ 7 below the current price.
But suddenly, the movement stopped.
For some of the traders,
buyers are waiting
to see if it can go further down or if $ 160/163 is a floor.
"There is demand, but if those who sold cheap come back, you can buy lower. If the days go by and they don't appear, they will slowly buy back. The demand in blue is 7-8 million a day, but it is not what you it raises strongly at once.
That demand can wait,
"says a market insider.
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They are the same ones who wait for the last minutes of the day, to see if the official bodies go out to lower the cash with liquid or the MEP dollar or the Stock Market through the sale of bonds, something that usually happens.
If the blue does not fall further,
the contained demand could return to the market
and push up.
The situation would become more complicated in December, with the
payment of bonuses.
Ramiro Marra, from Bull Market Brokers, acknowledges that the parallel market, such as the MEP and the CCL, is on hold.
"It is a market that evidently had some irregular situations on the supply side. Speculative demand perhaps expects better prices due to these supply irregularities. Permanent demand is in equilibrium, with an indecisive supply," he explains.
In addition to the fact that the bonus is paid and there will be pressure on the dollar, Marra clarifies that as of December the prohibitions will be released to acquire the dollar Stock market to people who bought a savings dollar 90 days ago.
And in February the offer of those who finished refinancing the card will appear.
There would be about 500,000 individuals who, if no new restrictions are put in place, could return to the official dollar market and eventually supply the parallel.
NE
