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The Central continues to sell dollars and reserves are already below US $ 39,000 million

2020-11-21T14:26:48.222Z


The amounts that must be disbursed were reduced but the trend was not reversedLaura Garcia 11/19/2020 8:40 PM Clarín.com Economy Updated 11/19/2020 8:40 PM It is no coincidence that senators asked the economy minister on Wednesday about the reserves. The coffers are getting thinner. And the spectrum of measures adopted so far has only succeeded in reducing the Central Bank's dollar sales, not reversing them. Thus, the reserves have just broken US $ 39,000 million.  "They


Laura Garcia

11/19/2020 8:40 PM

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

Updated 11/19/2020 8:40 PM

It is no coincidence that senators asked the economy minister on Wednesday about the reserves.

The coffers are getting thinner.

And the spectrum of measures adopted so far has only succeeded in

reducing the Central Bank's dollar sales, not reversing them.

Thus, the reserves have just broken US $ 39,000 million. 


"They are going to play to spend the summer without devaluing"

, thinks Fernando Marull, of FMyA.

This means that they will find a way to continue supplying the demand for foreign exchange or to suppress it a little more.

With a level of reserves of US $ 38,940 million, they

fell about US $ 800 million so far this month

after a decline of US $ 1,522 million in October, US $ 1,463 million in September and US $ 544 million in August.

Since that month, the monetary entity has sold US $ 4.15 billion, despite having advanced with

measures that both forced the sale and limited the demand for foreign currency.

So far in November, the Central had to part with a much lower amount than in previous months - there were even wheels in which it had a buyer balance - but there is little margin even to face those disbursements, which some days exceeded US $ 100 million.

With a negative balance of US $ 50 million this Thursday

, it has sold more than US $ 200 million in November, compared to US $ 1,090 million in October, US $ 1,618 million in September and US $ 1,279 million in August.  

To put it in perspective, these are figures that are very far from those that the body had to discard in

the electoral season last year

, for example, with a cumulative of US $ 7.4 billion from August to October and a peak of US $ 4.1 billion. that month.


"According to my calculations, the net reserves (constant and sound dollars plus gold) are in US $ 4,000 million while the liquid ones (immediately available) are negative in US $ 600 million. What are the alternatives that come?

It is a combination of more stocks, activate the swap with China and use the gold

", sums up Marull.

Net reserves are those that result from excluding various items from these US $ 39.00 million

:

reserve requirements

in dollars in banks (US $ 11,000 million), swap with China (US $ 19,000 million) and debt with agencies (US $ 3,000 million).

"All these concepts - Guido Lorenzo, from LCG emphasizes - are

associated with a liability behind

, the deposits are owed to the savers, to the Bank of the People's Republic of China the equivalent in pesos and to the organizations the US $ 3,000 million. Then there is gold and Special Drawing Rights for US $ 6.5 million, but these reserves do not have an associated liability in the BCRA's balance sheet. "

The SDR or Special Drawing Rights represent the currency used by the IMF to receive the contribution of its member countries.

"

In the last two months, when the controls began, the BCRA lost US $ 3,000 million of reserves

, more than US $ 1,500 million due to sales in the exchange market," he says.

The variation of reserves is not only tied to the balance of the intervention in the exchange market, but also other factors such as the evolution of the assets in which they are invested or the payment to international organizations.

"Every dollar that leaves the system then has to affect either the swap, which we know was not activated, or the dollars of the debt with organizations, which would imply worsening the BCRA's equity position, or selling gold but there is no evidence that the BCRA is doing it. If not, the reserve requirements of dollar deposits are being used to meet the loss of reserves. If they are using dollars from public deposits, the system is fragile in the face of an outflow of foreign currency deposits, "recapitulates Lorenzo .

But

yesterday Minister Guzmán was final: the lace does not touch. 


Regarding the alternative of activating the swap with China, which represents more than half of the total reserves, Lorenzo raises a reservation: "China since 2007 that has been expanding a global network of swaps to increase its influence.

I don't think he likes it that renminbi is used to dollarize portfolios

. It also has a financial cost to do so. "

The swap is, after all, a loan.

Look also

Cristina Kirchner's dart to the IMF had a full impact on the Government

They warn that the rate hike is not enough to stop the exchange crisis

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2020-11-21

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