11/23/2020 7:48 PM
Updated 11/23/2020 7:48 PM
Like a curse, the Argentine economy has been dragging the problem of
high inflation for more than a decade
and the situation is still far from being reversed.
With rates frozen and a limited movement of the dollar, the first official attempts to try to remove some restrictions and allow increases come up against a
with a high CPI floor.
The October data, 3.8%,
marked the highest inflation in the last 12 months
And the increases of some goods, such as meat and gasoline,
add pressure for the coming months.
Thus, the analysts consulted expect a floor of at least
for November and December.
But beyond the number, the average for the last quarter will imply a jump to 3.5% from the 2.5% that inflation has been traveling so far in 2020, a percentage that marks the monthly "cruising speed" for prices in Argentina in recent times.
The novelty of the weekend came from fuels: YPF announced a rise in gasoline of 2.5% on average that took place this Monday.
This is the fourth increase in almost four months.
The values of gasoline
thus increased by 19% so far in 2020,
with increases that occurred since August, at which time the increases began to be released.
And this is in addition to increases of between
10% and 20% in meats.
Although the direct impact of the latter increases, analysts describe it as limited, they do warn of the second-round effect on almost all goods and services in the economy.
The direct effect would be less than 0.15 which is added to the CPI.
Is that as described by Matías Rajnerman, from Ecolatina, the weight in the index is 5%.
But both he and the other economists consulted highlighted that there is an
Guido Lorenzo from LCG said that according to studies they did, the effect lasts for three months after the initial increase.
Although he recognized that as the current activity level is low, and there could be less transfer, he did emphasize that "there is already a lot of gymnastics in the remarking and many pesos to validate increases."
“November we expect inflation to be around 3% but we are not optimistic about December and January.
Many prices remain to unfreeze and without an anti-inflationary plan it could be traumatic to digest for the system ”, he staged.
Milagros Suardi, from EcoGo, added that the effect on the November CPI would not be so significant because there were only seven days left of the month when the increase in fuels occurred, but agreed on the secondary effects.
With this in mind, and also with the
rise in prepayments of 10% for December
, he said that they estimate an inflation with a floor at 3% the last two months of 2020 "with an acceleration in December taking into account the increase of 10 % in prepayments, fuel carry-over and considering that the last month of the year is seasonally high ”.
Another factor that analysts took note of was the rise in
wholesale prices: it reached 4.7% in October
, a number that anticipates that the CPI will add pressure.
Rajnerman defined that
are coming in terms of inflation.
"It will be very difficult for it to drop from 3% per month between now and March, with November and December at least 3.5%."
He considered that the increases in the maximum prices put a floor to an item as important as food and beverages.
“There are some
goods that are being imported at a parallel dollar, such
as entertainment and electronics.
Later by the joint.
While there is no recomposition of the real salary, but there are updates that carry over to the price level.
And the rate hike, which apparently will be in March, will also have an impact, "he described.
For 2020 it expects an
inflation of 36%,
EcoGo in the area of 37%, Fausto Spotorno, from Orlando J. Ferreres y Asociados predicts that it will be 38%.
For 2021 it is still early to know, since there is a factor that will end up weighing in what will happen, (in addition to the evolution of rates and salaries): the official dollar.
Still, private estimates do not drop below 40% per year, 10 points above the official forecast.
In the Government they
are concerned about the evolution of prices
, and although they highlight the "photo" that shows that so far this year an inflation accumulates that is 15 points lower than that accumulated in October 2019, the film is not encouraging.
Guido Lorenzo defined it as follows: “Annual inflation has maintained
records of over 20% for 10 years
, and in the last 5 it has consolidated around 35%.
This last data is worrisome, considering that it implies an economy operating under a higher nominality that, if sustained for so long, it is increasingly difficult to reverse ”.