BBVA and Sabadell break their merger negotiations

11 days after BBVA and Sabadell announced that they were opening official talks to merge, the two entities have broken the negotiations that were held until the early hours of this Friday.

The reaction of the Stock Exchange has been clear at the opening of the day: the Sabadell has set a first price at 0.33 euros, which represents a fall of 18% while it was inhibited from trading.

After starting to fluctuate, it fell to around 11%.

For their part, BBVA shares began to fall, but soon turned green with a rise of over 2%, around 3.8 euros.

Without reaching the end of the technical analysis (

, Sabadell considered that the price that BBVA was willing to pay did not value the potential of its business and the loss of independence that the sale entailed.

"Banco Sabadell has decided to end these talks as the parties have not reached an agreement on the eventual exchange ratio of the shares of both entities," as the bank notified the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) this Friday .

For its part, BBVA has also informed the CNMV that "the talks related to a potential merger operation with Banco Sabadell have concluded without an agreement having been reached", without giving further details.

After these two announcements, which will have deeply displeased supervisors who see mergers as a way to strengthen banks in the face of the crisis, now the key is the reaction of the markets.

The Sabadell has risen 32% since the announcement of the talks, although it started from very low prices.

BBVA has risen 19% in this same period.

The valuation differences between the two banks were very relevant.

BBVA had planned to make the payment through an exchange of shares, so it is likely that the president of Sabadell, Josep Oliu, would have demanded a vice-presidency and Carlos Torres, the head of BBVA, would have refused.

Boost the business in Spain

Financial sources commented this Thursday afternoon on the serious differences and mutual distrust that had arisen in the talks, to the point that they could end in rupture.

Regarding the vice-presidency of Oliu, these sources indicated that Torres did not want to introduce the rival executive due to the uncertainty that exists over the

.

If Torres were to be imputed by the National Court and had to give up the presidency, it could end up in the hands of Oliu.

Sabadell assumes the rupture saying that the bank “will develop a new business plan that will prioritize the domestic market as a formula to increase efficiency in the use of the Group's capital and resources, thus increasing profitability and creating value for shareholders. ”.

As for BBVA, if Sabadell's plan did not come out, analysts believe that it could carry out a buyback of its own shares to boost the price, as well as expand its presence in the capital of Garanti, its Turkish subsidiary, of which it controls 40 %.

However, this option would increase the risk in a very geopolitically unstable region.

The Bank of Spain warned of this danger a few weeks ago, so it was more in favor of the merger with Sabadell.

It should not be forgotten that the CEO, Onur Genç, is Turkish and held this position at Garanti.

TSB, the UK subsidiary, for sale

In this return to the origins, Sabadell insists in the note that "without prejudice to the fact that the main axes and objectives of the plan will be made public during the first quarter of 2021, Banco de Sabadell is in a position to anticipate that it will contemplate, Among other measures, the expansion of the efficiency and transformation program in the

market

(

banking) in Spain ―with a neutral impact on capital― and will analyze with its advisors strategic alternatives for creating value with respect to the Group's international assets, including TSB ".

In an act of realism, Sabadell admits the poor future of TSB, which has had serious computer problems that led to the temporary blocking of accounts.

Additionally, UK regulatory demands have delayed the bank's return to profits.

The market values ​​this entity at zero.

Finally, Sabadell claims to have "a solid franchise in Spain and is the leader in customer satisfaction index in the SME segment".

The Catalan entity announces that it will focus "on these segments with the highest added value and profitability" and that it will implement its new plan "improving both its efficiency and the organic generation of capital."

The market will be the one to judge the consequences of this divorce.