Annabella quiroga
12/14/2020 4:37 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 12/14/2020 4:37 PM
Preventing the exchange rate horizon from getting out of control and the gap from widening again is one of the goals set by Minister Martín Guzmán.
This afternoon at an economic seminar he was confident that the Central Bank's reserves
will grow again in 2021
and that this will allow "adjusting the capital account regulations", that is, softening the stocks.
Guzmán was one of the panelists of the Eurasian Group's GZero Summit Latin America.
There he assured that "we have already been picking up activity for three months. Collection is growing above inflation and
the exchange gap has been narrowing
."
"We seek to boost the economy and reduce the fiscal deficit with a multi-year program that aims for a
positive accumulation of reserves
in 2021
and a path to
adjust the regulations in the capital account
. We also promote a gradual reduction in inflation. We see a horizon. recovery clear by 2021, "the official said.
This year the gross reserves of the Central Bank lost
US $ 6,000 million,
reaching the current US $ 38,700 million.
But the most worrying thing is that in the first year of Alberto Fernández's administration, net reserves, which can effectively be used by the monetary authority to intervene in the exchange market,
dropped from US $ 13,000 million to US $ 4,000 million.
The drain on reserves was what motivated the hardening of the stocks.
To such an extent that with the successive disqualifications only 25% of the 4 million people who bought dollars for hoarding last August are in a position to do so today.
Added to this were greater restrictions for companies to access the official dollar to pay debts or turn foreign currency abroad.
In this context, the minister highlighted several times during the talk the connection between the recovery of reserves and
"the modification of those capital controls that are rather defensive."
And he explained that the "multi-year" economic program that they will send to Congress
"is going to have reserve accumulation goals."
Guzmán also referred to the relationship with the IMF in the middle of the negotiation to move from a stand-by agreement to another of extended facilities.
"We have been working constructively with the Monetary Fund. We are going to send the agreement with the IMF to Congress. We are looking for
broad support
and that stabilization is a state policy."
"There should not be a fiscal adjustment in a recessive context that damages the recovery, but there should be a fiscal path that makes
the debt / GDP ratio stable,
" he said.
Regarding the timing of the agreement with the Fund, he said that
"March or April would be reasonable times, but we are not tied to any date."
The minister referred to the need to advance in the rescheduling of the debt with the Paris Club, which reaches US $ 2.4 billion.
And he said that although the dialogue had already started before the pandemic, "a higher level of progress is required in the negotiations with the Monetary Fund."
How
fast can the fiscal consolidation process be? He
was asked.
"We have a situation where
there are 40% people living in poverty.
There is a human problem that is the priority. The whole scheme for the macro order is based on the fact that
there is no possibility of stabilization without economic recovery
. Fiscal consolidation must be done at a speed that respects this, "he replied.
Regarding the debt, he indicated that "it is not planned to take on debt in foreign currency again. We do seek to
deepen the possibilities of financing and saving in domestic currency
."
As for inflation, he ratified the Budget numbers that mark
an inflation of 29% for 2021
, contrary to the private forecasts that place it above 40%.
And he anticipated that the inflation of November, which will be known tomorrow, "
will be lower than that of October
" -which had been 3.8% -.
AQ
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