"Let us work", "sacrificed professions" or even "deprived of working, but not of paying", could we read on the signs of professionals in the hotel and restaurant industry gathered on Monday, December 14, in Paris, on the Esplanade des Invalides.
The demonstrators asked the government to resume their activity as soon as possible and to increase the aid distributed to them.
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Bars, event agencies, cultural players, travel agencies, sports halls… the list of sectors most affected by the restriction measures is long.
The lack of visibility on the reopening deadline promises to be painful for many of them, while they account for nearly 10% of French production according to INSEE.
However, the number of structures having closed down is much lower than last year.
Will this situation last?
And if not, when?
For what reasons?
Philippe Martin, deputy chairman of the Conseil d'Analyse Economique (CAE), a body dependent on Matignon, and co-author of a note on the question, sheds light on the situation.
40% fewer business failures this year compared to 2019
The figure appears to go against the grain at the end of 2020, bruised by the Covid-19 crisis.
However, the Banque de France is categorical: "The trend has continued in recent weeks," she tells us, scrutinizing the data from commercial courts, still below the levels observed in previous years.
A major wave of defaults was expected at the beginning of October.
And for good reason: until then, a government measure allowed companies not to be considered in default if they were not on March 12.
This wave did not take place.
Since October, 5,288 structures have closed their doors.
Over the same period of the previous year, they were 8,454.
“We now have enough hindsight to see that this measured deviation from last year is not due to these administrative measures.
For the moment, we are not seeing any catching-up effect, ”notes Philippe Martin.
An answer that calls for a new question: for how long?
A cocktail of aid that seems to work, for now
In its note published on December 14, the ACE outlines several explanations.
First and foremost are the protective measures put in place by the government.
"The public interventions made it possible to save, at least temporarily, a very large number of companies, some of which would not have survived a normal year" notes the Council.
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In addition to partial unemployment, state guaranteed loans (PGE) have been lifesaving.
"Even if the aid did not compensate 100% for the losses, the effect of the crisis on business closures remains weaker than expected," notes Philippe Martin, also professor of economics at Sciences Po. The measures taken by the banks and the end of social security tax adjustments operated by URSSAF also played an important role.
“In normal times, it is often through this that failures are triggered,” recalls the economist.
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However, some gray areas persist.
At Matignon as at the Banque de France, we concede not having much visibility on other bullets dragged by companies.
In particular on unpaid rents or amounts due to suppliers.
In any case, the consequences are likely to be felt in the coming months.
Whether it concerns loans contracted with banks, PGEs or unpaid invoices, concedes Philippe Martin, "it will be necessary to catch up at one time or another, and it will undoubtedly start with companies. which were already fragile before the crisis ”.
Same story on the side of the Bank of France, which feared this catching up for next spring.
“Basically, the loans granted by the State were for one year, but since then it has announced that the payment periods will be extended.
There will be no cleaver effect.
The consequences should be more spread out over time, ”we told the Bank.
Will there be fewer companies in 2022 than in 2019?
This is the question asked by entrepreneurs, traders, economists and politicians.
The Economic Analysis Council obviously does not risk making forecasts.
In the absence of a crystal ball, experts have identified the problems that are accumulating.
In addition to debt repayments, however smooth they may be, the drop in productivity and the lack of innovation of certain companies should weigh heavily.
"Not all sectors are impacted in the same way, many companies have been able to maintain normal activity" specifies Philippe Martin.
In the most affected trade sectors, defaults could drop from 1.1% in 2019 to 1.78% in 2021, the note read.
Elsewhere, in less affected sectors, the estimated impact on insolvencies seems minimal, from 0 to + 0.13% according to CAE calculations.
Two major unknowns remain.
Will France reconfine itself a third time?
And what aids will be put in place to remedy this?
The answer obviously lies in the evolution of the health crisis and the government's reaction.
Finally, all of these debts will naturally weigh on French public finances.
The risk hanging over the country's debt remains less than the weakening of the economic fabric, according to the CAE.
Among our European neighbors, in Germany and especially in the United Kingdom, concludes the Council, protective measures, albeit different, seem, for the time being, to have had the same beneficial effects on the survival of businesses.
