Annabella quiroga
12/28/2020 7:12 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 12/28/2020 9:24 PM
At the local level, the blue dollar was the unbeatable investment of 2020. It rose
118% between January and December
and beat the financial dollars, the MEP and the cash with liquid, which increased 90 and 94%.
The wholesaler was up 40% in the year.
On the last two wheels, the blue dollar stretched out of the slumber that dragged throughout December and jumped.
On Wednesday it rose seven pesos and yesterday Monday it increased another five pesos, to $ 164. It had
not touched that level since November 18.
With this jump, the informal dollar shook the currency pax that reigned in the market in the last four weeks and that allowed the Central Bank to rebuild reserves by almost US $ 600 million after having resigned another US $ 6,000 million in the year.
Behind the comeback of the blue is the "
bonus effect
": the savers who can no longer go to the official due to the tightening of the stocks and who seek to obtain tickets in the informal one.
At current prices, the gap between the savings dollar, which this Monday exceeded $ 147, is only $ 17.
With these prices the blue became the most "yielding" dollar of 2020. Whoever was able to access the quota of US $ 200 each month with the intention of mashing it and selling it in the blue bagged a profit throughout the year that ranges from $ 65,700 to $ 125,000, depending on when it was sold.
The blue started the year at $ 75 and with only two wheels ahead it is closing it at
$ 164 for the top seller and $ 159 for the buyer
.
So whoever bought US $ 1000 in the informal on January 2 of this year allocated $ 75,000 and if he mashes now in the blue and sells them, he takes $ 164,000, more than double.
v 1.5
Evolution of dollar prices
Tap to explore the data
Infographic:
Clarín
The incentive to puree grew at the rate of the quarantine.
Until mid-April, the informal dollar ran behind the savings dollar.
In the summer, only half a million Argentines bought through the official channel.
Starting in May,
the exchange rate gap jumped
, driven by uncertainty, expectations of devaluation and the flow of pesos that before the pandemic were used for expenses such as transportation and recreation.
That is precisely when
the use of the US $ 200 quota
begins to take off
, which increased to 1.7 million buyers in April, 2.2 million in May, 3.3 million in June and 3.9 in July.
The peak was August with
4 million people
taking $ 1 billion.
Then came the reinforcement of the exchange stocks and nothing would be the same.
With the deployment of the disqualifications for the purchase of foreign currency in the official market, the use of the quota reached 3.8 million people in September and in October it fell to one million.
In November they were 870,000
and a similar number is estimated for December.
Until September, the profit from the mash had been exceeding the inflation that had accumulated up to 20% at that time.
Until September in the average of the year
a profit of 34%
was obtained
if it was bought in the official and sold in the blue.
But with the rising cost of the dollar, I saved with the additional 35% surcharge on Profit account,
that gap narrowed
.
So, the one who was buying the US $ 200 month by month and immediately sold it in the blue obtained in the year an average profit of $ 65,700, 27%.
The performance no longer looks so attractive in the face of inflation that accelerated in the last four months and is shaping up to close at around 35%.
In the middle, the Central
adjusted the rates of the fixed terms,
which have a floor of 37% per year.
But whoever had the chance to keep the tickets he bought month by month while waiting for the best price, took
a bigger slice
.
The one who collected US $ 2,400 over the course of twelve months and sells it now keeps a difference of $ 125,000, a gain in pesos of 52%.
Separate paragraph for those who had the
affiliate instinct
to sell on October 23, when the buying tip of the blue touched $ 190 and the seller touched $ 195. They
earned $ 10,600 if that month they used the monthly quota and sold that day.
And if they sold the $ 2,000 they had accumulated in the year, they took home $ 190,000,
100% profit.
In the year that is about to start, the forecasts indicate that the blue dollar will continue to maintain its attractiveness.
For economists, the exchange gap will widen again.
And if more restrictions were not measured, as the year progresses, a good part of the disqualifications that left three million buyers out of the market will expire - those who received the IFE or the salary with ATP, among others, were excluded for 12 months- , with what would be more interested in mashing.
AQ
Look also
Dollar: with a gap of $ 14 between the MEP and the blue, the attractiveness of “mashing” returns
Dollar today: is there scope for the gap between the blue and the official to continue to decrease in 2021?