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Corona consequences: economic researchers lower growth forecast for 2021 significantly

2021-01-06T09:04:37.535Z


New year, worse prospects: leading economists are lowering their expectations for 2021. The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) has lowered its growth forecast from 5.2 to just 3.5 percent.


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Empty downtown Essen in the second lockdown

Photo: Rupert Oberhäuser / imago images

Many economic researchers expect the second corona wave and the ongoing shutdown to result in worse economic development than previously thought.

The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) lowered its forecast for the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) this year from 5.2 to only 3.5 percent.

But there are also more optimistic voices: The union-affiliated Hans Böckler Foundation, for example, considers growth "noticeably over four percent" to be possible.

In the first quarter of the year, DIW expects an economic slump of over two percent.

A restart in the second quarter will only succeed if the wave of infections subsides by February and the restrictions can then be largely lifted, said DIW President Marcel Fratzscher to the "Handelsblatt" on Tuesday.

"If this does not succeed, the economy in Germany could suffer even longer and the risk of corporate insolvencies and unemployment increases significantly."

Economy: forecast »no longer tenable«

The original DIW forecast was significantly more optimistic than that of the Advisory Council on the assessment of macroeconomic development: In November - before the current tougher shutdown - it predicted GDP growth of 3.7 percent for 2021.

The chairman of the economy, Lars Feld, called this forecast "no longer tenable".

The planned extension of the lockdown will delay the economic recovery, warned the President of the Ifo Institute, Clemens Fuest, in the »Handelsblatt«.

A prolonged closure of large parts of the retail trade will "at some point also affect the demand for industrial goods" and could thus slow down the industrial recovery.

February partial easing at best

As long as industrial production and construction are still developing positively, the economic slump will be much milder than in spring 2020, said IfW President Gabriel Felbermayr.

However, at best, "partial easing" of the shutdown can be expected for February.

According to Felbermayr, his Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) expects economic growth overall for 2021 - albeit "with continued enormous uncertainty".

The Hans-Böckler-Foundation warned on Tuesday to increase investments to overcome the corona crisis.

Otherwise Germany runs the risk of "stalling recovery," said the Foundation's Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK).

The already increased national debt is »not an obstacle« for loan-financed investments in digitization, research and climate protection.

Warning of more spring bankruptcies

Bank President Hans-Walter Peters warned in particular of an increase in corporate bankruptcies in 2021. The number of bankruptcies will probably "increase by a few thousand compared to the previous year," he told the newspapers of the Funke media group.

The shutdown over Christmas was "the worst acceptable case" for the retail sector in particular and will leave "clear marks": "That will have consequences for the city centers," emphasized the President of the Association of German Banks (BdB).

In gastronomy and tourism, too, “we will certainly see clear problems”.

Icon: The mirror

caw / AFP

Source: spiegel

All business articles on 2021-01-06

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