01/09/2021 15:06
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 01/09/2021 15:06
The forecasts of the Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán for 2021 do not coincide with those of the economists, at least at the start of the year.
The official said on Friday that he expects inflation to drop 5 points next year from the 35% it will end this year.
But according to the Market Expectations Survey carried out by the Central Bank among consultants and specialists,
the figure will be around 49.8%
, compared to the 30% estimated by the minister.
The survey was conducted between December 23 and 30, 2020. Forecasts from 41 consulting firms, research centers and financial entities were considered.
For December, inflation estimates were at 4%.
"For the following months, participants project a generally downward trajectory for monthly inflation," states the Central Bank report.
Those who participate in REM expect a real
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 5.5% by 2021
(which marks a growth of 0.7 percentage points over the previous estimate).
Regarding the evolution of the dollar, the analysts consulted adjusted their projections downwards.
They expect it to reach $ 125.80 in December 2021
and $ 171.45 by the end of 2022.
Regarding the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation of GDP, the estimate for the fourth quarter of the year increased by 0.8 percentage points compared to the last survey, to 3.6%.
However, economists forecast a slowdown in activity growth for the first and second quarters of 2021, in both cases less than 1%.
For January 2021, those participating in the REM predicted a BADLAR rate for private banks of 35%, with an increasing trend in the following months and until the end of the year.
In any case, with respect to the previous survey, there were downward corrections in the forecasts surveyed for the coming months and upward by the end of 2021, when the rate level would rise to 38.14%.
In addition to measuring these variables, for the first time the REM consulted on exports, imports and unemployment.
Regarding the value of shipments abroad, specialists estimate that they would amount to US $ 59,959 million in 2021, while imports would be US $ 48,147 million.
Unemployment for the fourth quarter of 2020 would be 11.7%.
By 2021, they would remain at that level in the following quarters and then drop to 11% in the last quarter.
On the other hand, the projection of the primary fiscal deficit for 2021 decreased to $ 1.7 trillion and they forecast a deficit of $ 1.5 trillion by 2022.
NE
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