THE QUESTION
.
“
The hardest part is ahead of us,
” admitted Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of the Economy, Finance and Recovery, to the Institut Montaigne last week.
But, at the same time, he expects a 6% increase in gross domestic product in 2021.
Read also: Will the economic and social consequences of Covid-19 really be those of a war?
The government hopes to fill over two years the staggering hole observed in economic activity in 2020 where GDP collapsed by 9% compared to the previous year, according to estimates by INSEE and elsewhere by most economists.
This catching-up would take place over two years, thanks to which the economy would finally regain the pace it had before the epidemic.
But is this realistic, and does the government believe it itself, as it prepares public opinion for difficult times?
CHECKS.
Let us first observe that the government forecast for growth of 6% is not at all extravagant in terms of
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