Minister of Economic Affairs Altmaier: On the safe side
Photo: Michele Tantussi / dpa / Reuters Pool
According to SPIEGEL information, Federal Economics Minister Peter Altmaier (CDU) expects significantly less growth this year than was predicted in autumn.
In 2021, the economy will only grow by three percent, Altmaier predicts in the new annual economic report that he will present in the coming week.
As recently as October, the Minister of Economic Affairs had expected an increase of 4.4 percent.
The report states the extension of the shutdown as the cause of the correction.
Because the economic recovery is more subdued, the number of unemployed will only fall by around 80,000 on average over the previous year.
The growth this year will therefore not compensate for the slump that the German economy recorded last year.
In 2020, economic output fell by five percent.
The growth forecast in the annual economic report is currently being agreed between the Ministry of Economics and Finance.
With the new forecast, the federal government is taking a much more cautious view of the economic recovery.
Altmaier has decided not to be too optimistic in the election year.
It would not look good for the government if the forecast had to be corrected shortly before the polls, according to his calculation.
It makes a better impression if the economy recovers better in the course of the year than was forecast in January.
In this respect, Altmaier now feels on the safe side.
With its forecast, the federal government is at the lower end of the forecast spectrum.
The economic research institutes in particular are much more confident about the new year.
The RWI from Essen and the union-related Institute for Macroeconomics and Business (IMK) predict an increase of 4.9 percent.
The German Business Institute (IW), which is close to the employer, still expects growth of 4.0 percent.
The Bundesbank, on the other hand, is just as cautious about the upturn as the federal government.
She also predicts an increase of three percent.
The forecasts are from mid-December.
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