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Israel beats the world by knockout, but what does that actually mean? - Walla! Business

2021-01-24T09:46:35.309Z

The research department at Deutsche Bank has released a special review of the global immunization system. Israel leads by a margin, but even if our economy is released, we are still dependent on the global pace, and there the situation is not really bright.



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Israel beats the world by knockout, but what does that actually mean?

The research department at Deutsche Bank has released a special review of the global immunization system.

Israel leads by a margin, but even if our economy is released, we are still dependent on the global pace, and there the situation is not really bright.

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  • Vaccine

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Sunday, 24 January 2021, 11:23

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In the video: Corona vaccination campaign in Israel (Photo: Reuters)

Deutsche Bank's research department has released a special review regarding the vaccine deployment in emerging markets.

The key question now is how quickly vaccine technology can be translated towards the target of herd immunity.

The sooner the vaccination process is carried out, the sooner the reopening process of the economy will take place and as a result the economic recovery will be faster and more powerful.

In emerging market countries we estimate the vaccination schedules by ranking countries according to 5 variables.

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  • Vaccines given so far

  • The supply of vaccines

  • The governments' own schedules for vaccination

  • Skepticism among the population regarding the vaccine

  • The state's past success in dealing with viruses

In first place, by a wide margin.

Israel vs. the Rest of the World (Diagram: Deutsche Bank) (Photo: Image Processing, Deutsche Bank)

The analysis draws two main conclusions: The first is that emerging market countries will lag behind in terms of population immunity and as a result will exhibit a slower economic recovery.

The second conclusion is that there are differences between the different countries in emerging markets, with some countries showing a rapid pace of population vaccination while others lag behind.

  • The countries with the highest probability vaccinated their risk population until the end of the second quarter: Israel, Chile, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Turkey, Singapore.

  • The countries that are unlikely to have vaccinated the population at risk by the end of the second quarter: Philippines, Malaysia, South Africa, Ukraine, Colombia, Indonesia, Egypt.

  • The countries about which there is uncertainty as to whether they will be able to vaccinate the population at risk by the end of the second quarter: China, South Korea, India, Peru, Russia, Romania, Brazil, Mexico.

Israelis come to get vaccinated and the differences from the rest of the world are noticeable (Photo: Reuven Castro)

Vaccination schedules in emerging markets

In the battle of humanity against the corona virus, the vaccine is the most powerful weapon in the existing arsenal of weapons.

Asset returns since Pfizer's announcement of the November 9 vaccine's success reflect this fact with a significant increase in risk assets and emerging market currencies of over 5 percent.

The key question now is how quickly vaccine technology can be translated into herd immunity.

Early vaccinations will allow for a faster reopening of the economy and a faster economic recovery.

As a result, stronger growth and the termination of special assistance programs will reduce the pressure on government budgets.

Successful implementation of vaccines will lead to the return of international tourism and good news for countries with high exposure to this sector.



Our colleagues examined the planned schedules for vaccination in the G10 countries and came to the positive conclusion that the G7 countries vaccinated the populations at risk until spring and could reach herd immunity by next fall.

In emerging markets it is more difficult to obtain accurate information on vaccine supply, deployment and this information is less accessible in a accessible way.

It is therefore difficult to estimate when the population will reach a state of herd immunity.

Therefore, alternatively we evaluate the countries on the basis of 5 variables: vaccines given so far, the supply of vaccines, the governments' own schedules for vaccination, skepticism among the population about the vaccine and the country's past success in dealing with viruses.



Our analysis draws two main conclusions.

The first is that emerging market countries will lag behind in terms of population immunity and as a result will exhibit a slower economic recovery.

The second conclusion is that there are differences between the different countries in emerging markets, with some countries showing a rapid pace of population vaccination while others lag behind.

The emerging market countries that are likely to be first in the population vaccine are Israel, Singapore, and Chile.

Countries that may lag behind are the Philippines, Ukraine, and South Africa.

Vaccines given so far

Vaccine deployment and distribution have already begun in many emerging market countries mainly outside the Asian continent.

Israel has so far vaccinated about 30 percent of its population in at least one dose and leads by a large margin over the other countries.

The CE4 region is second in line in the rate of vaccines, with more than 1 percent of the population in Poland, Hungary and Romania receiving at least one dose of the vaccine.

Asia-China is the fastest in the bunch while the leading LATAM countries meanwhile are Chile and Mexico.

Turkey, whose start was late, is showing an impressive pace of deployment, with more than 800,000 people receiving the vaccine in the first six days of the program, the second after Israel in the speed of vaccine distribution.

9 emerging market countries have not yet started the vaccination program: Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Egypt, Ukraine.

There is still uncertainty about the pace in Brazil (Photo: Reuters)

The supply of vaccines

Information on the supply of vaccines poses several problems.

First, some of the countries were invisible and transparent regarding the initial orders of vaccine quantities and how many vaccine doses were received from the vaccine suppliers.

For example, Russia has developed the Sputnik 5 vaccine, but the vaccine is produced in both Russia and other countries.

Official information indicates that Russia has only 30 million vaccine doses, but this seems highly unlikely and underestimated.

Purchasing vaccines in Brazil meanwhile is split by several factors: the federal government, states and private providers when there is disagreement about the exact amount of vaccines ordered.



Some countries obtain vaccines through GAVI's COVAX facility (including countries such as Ukraine, South Africa, Brazil, Colombia, Peru).

While accurate information on initial quantities ordered by countries exists, it is not clear from which company these vaccines were ordered.

This is an important statistic because some vaccines have shown a higher level of efficacy and effectiveness in clinical trials than other vaccines.

Pfizer's two-dose vaccine indicates a 95 percent efficacy level, while SINOVAC's vaccine, which a number of emerging market countries have expressed interest in and invested heavily in, has shown a 50 percent low efficacy level in a number of clinical trials conducted in Brazil.

Also, there are vaccines that have been ordered and in some cases also distributed and there is no longer a full assessment of their nature in clinical trials (J&J and Sputnik V vaccine).

We therefore make the distinction between vaccines that have undergone Phase 3 clinical trials and those that have not yet.

For the sake of simplicity, we do not make a distinction between the level of efficacy of vaccines according to Phase 3 in the clinical trials in our ranking.

Supply in the CEEMEA region is skewed towards vaccines with a higher level of efficacy compared to the South American and Asian region.



In addition, the demographic difference also makes the direct comparison regarding vaccine coverage difficult.

For example, with a high proportion of the population under the age of 16, South Africa and India will have to vaccinate a smaller percentage of their population than other countries in emerging markets.

Another question that arises - will vaccine statistics reflect the distinction between doses 1 and 2 (we define a vaccine as two doses to be given, excluding vaccines that require dose 1).



Finally, in some emerging market countries there is still a vaccine under development.

In addition to the SPUNIK V Gamaleya vaccine, Russia is also working on a single-dose lite vaccine, which is currently in the early stages of clinical trials.

Egypt and Turkey are also currently testing their vaccine technology.

All of these vaccines are not statistically included in our review, as we estimate that it will take a considerable amount of time (assuming they are successful in clinical trials) to distribute them to the population.



Our analysis shows that the availability of vaccines is extremely high in Chile, Israel, Peru, Singapore, South Korea.

Russia, Ukraine, Romania, and South Africa have the least supply of vaccines.

At the same time, regarding Russia, the estimate seems to be too low, with the supply of the Sputnik V vaccine far exceeding the 30 million officially reported doses.

Similarly, China's vaccine potential is much lower because it is one of the largest vaccine providers.

Population skepticism about the vaccine

Vaccine supply provides ambitious targets are not metrics that will certainly suffice for governments in emerging markets to address logistical or behavioral challenges.

"Behavioral" refers to the population's desire to be vaccinated.

As always, when making a comparison there are variables that make the comparison problematic, because surveys done to examine this behavioral problem were done at different times and different questions were asked.

The CE4 region and other Eastern European countries are exceptional compared to the other countries in this parameter, where the level of skepticism of the population is very high, while also in the Philippines, South Africa, Colombia the population is skeptical.

The public that most supports the vaccine is in the countries of Thailand, China, Brazil, Mexico, Korea.

France is furious at the slow pace of vaccination

  • Despite the closure: In the Talmud Torah "Hachmat Shlomo" in Jerusalem ...

  • The Nocturnal Angle Video keeps young trees

  • Enforcement activities in the Supervisory Division of the Poultry Board

  • Edelstein will offer to extend the closure by two weeks;

    Netanyahu: ...

  • Tightening the closure: 25 roadblocks were set up on roads throughout ...

  • More than two million Israelis have been vaccinated against Corona; ...

  • Despite the closure: Haredi educational institutions have opened throughout the country ...

  • Security is tightening in Washington ahead of Biden's inauguration ...

In the video: Providing Corona vaccines to the elderly in France (Photo: Reuters, Editing: Assaf Drori)

Logistical success in administering the vaccine

In order to take into account the logistical challenges we include variables on the rate of vaccinators for other infectious diseases.

The variable we use is that of the International Health Organization regarding the second dose of measles vaccine.

Using data on the second dose gives the advantage of understanding which countries are more thorough when it comes to the vaccination process.

It follows that the difference between the different countries is less significant than other variables although a small number of countries fall into this variable as well (Philippines, South Africa, Brazil, Peru, Indonesia).

Connecting all the data and assembling a rating board

  • By taking into account all 5 variables and applying equal weighting, we can create a ranking of all countries.

    Israel (unsurprisingly), China, Chile, South Korea and Poland receive the highest ranking, while Indonesia, Colombia, South Africa, Ukraine, the Philippines receive the lowest ranking.

    Another way of presenting the data Figure 9 shows the ranking according to the ratio between the supply of vaccines and the distribution capabilities from high to low.

  • The countries with the highest probability vaccinated their risk population until the end of the 2nd quarter: Israel, Chile, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Turkey, Singapore.

  • Countries that are unlikely to have vaccinated the population at risk by the end of the 2nd quarter: Philippines, Malaysia, South Africa, Ukraine, Colombia, Indonesia, Egypt.

  • Countries that are uncertain whether they will be able to vaccinate the population at risk by the end of the 2nd quarter: China, South Korea, India, Peru, Russia, Romania, Brazil, Mexico.

The split schedules will play a role

These data lead to the conclusion that on average emerging markets are likely to lag behind developed countries in terms of vaccine distribution and reaching the target of herd immunity (assuming a herd immunity status can be reached), even if a limited number of countries are expected to succeed.

The spread in vaccine schedules is also wide.

If governments in developed countries allow the economy to reopen after vaccinating the at-risk population, we could see a relatively large number of openness.



In emerging markets this is not likely to be the underlying scenario.

We anticipate split timelines regarding vaccination will play a key role in differences between countries.

It is important to note that vaccination timing will not be the only variable.

The relationship between restrictions and the number of infected is very different between different countries, with the Brazilian economy remaining fairly open despite a second powerful corona wave, while the Philippines remains fairly closed.

In addition, variables like physical ability and economic openness along with other factors should also be taken into account.

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Source: walla

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