Icon: enlarge
Germany’s retail and gastronomy will remain closed for the time being - like here in Münster
Photo: Rüdiger Wölk / imago images
The federal government expects a more difficult and longer way out of the corona-related economic crisis.
She is screwing down the economic forecast for this year.
Further economic development will continue to be significantly influenced by the course of the pandemic and the containment measures, according to the annual economic report, which the dpa news agency has received in advance.
Economy Minister Peter Altmaier (CDU) presented the report on Wednesday afternoon.
After a 5.0 percent slump in economic output last year, the German government expects gross domestic product to grow by 3.0 percent this year, according to the report.
The economic output before the crisis is unlikely to be reached again until mid-2022.
In the fall, Altmaier had assumed +4.4 percent
In his autumn forecast presented at the end of October, Altmaier had expected GDP to rise by 4.4 percent for 2021.
At that time it was said that the pre-crisis level would not be reached again until the turn of the year 2021/2022 at the earliest.
According to the annual economic report, the shutdown caused a significant slowdown in economic momentum.
It can be assumed that economic performance will still be significantly affected by the pandemic in the first quarter.
It goes on to say: "As the pandemic situation continues to stabilize through vaccination of larger population groups and the removal of restrictions on public life, the economy should pick up speed again."
The forecast is for a shutdown until February
The annual projection is based on the assumption that the shutdown, which was tightened in December, will continue into February and that value creation will gradually start up again in the affected areas.
The shutdown is limited to mid-February.
In view of the risk of mutated Corona variants, it is also possible that it will be extended again.
Altmaier has long been criticized by business associations.
You accuse him of slow implementation of government financial aid for companies and too much bureaucracy.
The federal government had announced improvements.
Robust industry versus weak service sector
According to the annual economic report, the development of the economy will initially be divided into two parts.
A service sector that is more dependent on social contacts and therefore more severely affected by the pandemic is contrasted by a robustly developing industry.
In the course of the year, the gradual overcoming of the corona pandemic and a recovery in the service sectors can be expected.
The positive development on the labor market observed before the second shutdown is unlikely to continue until spring.
"Rising employment and wages then ensure income growth and support private consumption."
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had also lowered its growth forecast for Germany for the current year, by 0.7 percentage points to 3.5 percent.
Only last week, the IMF certified Germany's comparatively good corona crisis management in a separate country study, but at the same time warned not to discontinue economic aid too early.
Icon: The mirror
caw / dpa-AFX
