02/09/2021 18:29
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 02/09/2021 8:48 PM
The Central Bank
reduced the rate
of
The dollar rose in the last week in response to the anticipated data it obtained on inflation in January.
The Government expects the cost of living last month to be
3.9%
, which is practically the same as the 4% in December, which had been driven by the rise in food.
Faced with that forecast, Miguel Angel Pesce decided to moderate the rise in the official dollar in an attempt not to add arguments to the increase in the food basket just, in addition, when President Alberto Fernández came out to threaten the field with increases in retentions or quotas to the export to decouple domestic food prices from export prices.
Thus, the rate of rise of the official dollar is
now
more similar
to the 2.5% per month
than the 3.8 / 4% that came as an average in the last two months.
A quick question from market operators is whether with this decision, the management of the dollar enters the traditional scheme of Kirchner governments of odd electoral years consisting of
delaying the exchange rate
to favor an improvement in the purchasing power of wages .
The first response from the Casa Rosada had been advanced by President Alberto Fernández in an interview with Página 12 when referring to the meat issue, saying "I need them to export because
I need dollars to come in
."
Alberto Fernández threatened to add retentions to the field and further strained the relationship with the sector.
Unlike the previous K governments, a big problem of the current one is the
lack of dollars,
so that an exchange rate delay such as those of 2011 or 2015 would have little chance.
But they would seek to put a
foot on the exchange rate
so that Minister Martín Guzmán's commitment that the dollar should grow with inflation slows down.
The Government has capital in
financial stabilization
(with stocks, limits on payment of imports, strong cut in the sale of dollars for savings, etc.) that in the short term gained space in the heat of the
strong rise in grains
in the market international.
Soybeans at
US $ 512 per ton
accumulated a rise of US $ 50 only since November and is one of the reasons why the Central Bank is buying dollars to rebuild reserves.
Even the certain relative slack (in the Central they believe that the producers had
15 million tons of unliquidated grains
from which they could now be shed) would allow them to sell a good part of the dollars that YPF needs to close the debt swap with creditors.
Although the deal has not been closed, the oil company's agreement with creditors to refinance
US $ 6.2 billion would
include a large cash payment.
YPF's original commitment was to pay US $ 413 million
next March 23rd.
That amount is not enough for the oil company, but the Central would be willing to
sell it about US $ 200 million,
which would be the new cash outlay.
Another question to answer is whether by delaying the increases in the official dollar they will be able to contain the increase in the
cost of living,
even after knowing that the food basket for low-income sectors measured by the City of Buenos Aires rose
5.4% in January.
Food pressures, but
computer prices grew 90%
in the year of the pandemic and despite the quiet dollar.
Also
clothing and footwear rose 60%
and there are what are known as dollarized products (motorcycles, cars, electronics) that increased comfortably above inflation.
From the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies, Sergio Massa pushes his project so that fewer workers pay Profits.
The issue there is the
exchange gap
between the wholesale dollar and the so-called "cash with settlement", which is around 75% and acts as a powerful indicator for setting prices.
The dollar that merchants and importers have in mind when calculating replacement prices is much more similar to the $ 153 of the CCL than the $ 88.27 of the wholesaler.
The president may get angry and threaten the market as he has been doing with several of the economic agents, but there is a reality determined by the shortage of foreign exchange, the wide exchange gap and the
very low price
of Argentine bonds that have been pressing the need of the Government to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund to resolve the payment of US $ 44,000 million in the coming years.
Without confidence or progress with the IMF, Argentina's bonds cost between US $ 34.50 and US $ 38.50, yield 17% annually in dollars, and demonstrate the
country's practical impossibility of obtaining financing
abroad.
Of course, a part of the Government may think that external credit is not needed and that the important thing will be to win the October elections with the tactic of
"living with what is ours,"
but that experiment would also have limits.
The message of the Casa Rosada is that in the election year, salaries must beat inflation and on this path the project of the head of the Chamber of Deputies, Sergio Massa, to exempt from the payment of Gains of salaries of up to $ 150,000.
For wages to win the race against inflation, broadly speaking, it would be necessary for
both the dollar and rates to update below the price index.
The electricity, gas, water and transportation rates are frozen and now the Central is putting a foot on the increase in the dollar.
The
economy in electoral mode
came into action
and it will be necessary to see how long the pots can accumulate when private forecasts calculate an inflation of 50% by 2021.
Look also
Martín Guzmán warned about the dollar and left an uncomfortable phrase after the profit reduction: "You have to be careful with the monetary issue"
City: inflation for the poorest was 5.4% in January
