02/11/2021 6:01 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 02/11/2021 6:01 AM
After the inflationary rise of 4% in December -the highest in 2020-
economists predict that in January this figure may be reissued and may even be higher
given the “decompression” that a large part of the prices of the economy are having .
This situation puts greater pressure on food that continues to rise above the general level of inflation.
Today the January CPI data will be released at 4:00 p.m. by Indec.
Ferreres measured 3.6% rise in January, Ecolatina 3.7% and the online IPC of Bahía Blanca 5.2%
Pablo Goldin, an economist at the Macroview consultancy,
told Clarín days ago that: “in January we are getting very high inflation.
Clearly higher than December and
could even reach 5%, "he
says.
This result, according to the analyst, has to do with the fact that "half of the prices regulated or controlled by the Government are increasing at a rate of 2%, while the other half is increasing at a rate of 5%."
The exception, according to these records,
are foods that grow at 7%
, according to Goldin.
The
food and beverages item (in
addition to
Tourism)
,
is one of those that leads the increases of the month and is focused on
meat, fruit and vegetables,
For the consultant LCG
,
which measures food on a weekly basis, "in the last four weeks, meats (9, 1%) and fruits (8%) sustain the highest increases ", he stated in his latest report.
"In the fourth week of January, the rise in food averaged 1.2%, that is, it slowed 0.6 points compared to the previous week. But the index for the item presented an average monthly inflation of 4.7% in the last 4 weeks and 5.5% measured end to end in the same weeks. These price levels leave a drag for the month of February of 2.1%, "he explained.
For
Abeceb's
economist
, Soledad Perez Duhalde,
inflation in January will reach between
3.9% and 4.4%
"it may even exceed that level," he warned.
"With a retail inflation that exceeds 4%, the passage to prices (pass through) generates uncertainty", he says.
In reality, according to the economist, "the first quarter of the year is going to be" hot "in terms of inflation (3.4% average, due to the impact of gasoline, tolls, telecommunications, subways, schools, etc.) with a January more intense in this regard, he commented.
According to
economist Victoria Giarrizzo,
"January could have been worse in adjustments because consumption continues to fall," he said.
In any case, its forecasts on the CPI are high: between
3.7 and 4% without counting the last week of the month
.
Meanwhile, food had risen 4.1%.
"In the goods sector what you are seeing are strong increases in some product segments that are being rearranged because they were delayed last year," he explained.
For his part, the economist
Martin Vauthier
from the Eco Go consultancy,
he adds: "we are projecting between
3.5% and 4%, although closer to 4%
judging by the latest measurements," he said.
Finally, for the economists included in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) prepared by the Central Bank,
inflation in January will be 3.9%
.
