Annabella quiroga
02/21/2021 4:19 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 02/21/2021 4:19 PM
Last week the pre-sale of Samsung's new cell phone was launched in the local market.
Here, the Galaxy S21 Plus sells for $ 139,999, the equivalent of
$ 897 on the card dollar.
In the United States, the same version is
US $ 999.
Thats not all.
Depending on the bank with which it operates, this purchase can be financed in
6 to 18 installments without interest
, in an economy in which private analysts forecast an inflation of between 40 and 50% for this year.
The cell phone is an example that in some cases
"dollarizing consumption"
in a devaluation scheme at a slow pace like the one promoted by Minister Martín Guzmán can be a defensive strategy, although with low wages and the collapse of purchasing power it is clear that
is not suitable for all pockets.
This year, with the focus on the elections,
the Government will limit the rise in the dollar.
The official plan is for the devaluation to be 25%, so the currency will run several lengths behind inflation.
For analysts this could allow a certain
"summer of consumption"
, which improves the social mood and the electoral chances of the ruling party.
But they warn that the exchange rate delay will generate pressure on the market and this will most likely lead to
a devaluation jump in 2022.
So the $
147
of today's blue or the
$ 156
of the savings dollar seem cheap compared to what they could be in 12 months.
With this scenario,
is this a good time to dollarize consumption?
Walter Morales, director of the consulting firm Wise, affirms that it is.
"
We are in a cheap dollar scenario.
In the coming months we will have inflation of between 3.2% and 4% per month and the real exchange rate is going to lag further."
"
It is a great time to buy household appliances
, anticipate unsatisfied purchases,
take advantage of the Now 12 plans at a zero rate
. We have to take advantage of these promotions again because inflation partially liquifies them," he says.
But in a context of dollar shortage, the question is whether
there will be enough imported products to supply the market.
For Morales, "the government is going to be very aggressive in the face of imports in an economy that does not have stock to start. So
the obstacles to imports can generate demand inflation
."
What works with electronics does not necessarily work the same way with the real estate market.
In 2020, properties were down about 20% in dollars, according to realtors.
A survey by Mercado Libre detected
drops of 6 and 8%
in the City of Buenos Aires and the suburbs.
Will the decline continue this year?
"
In times of exchange delay, it is difficult to find someone who is willing to sell
. Many prefer to defend their margin and wait for the exchange rate to rebuild. Then the supply is reduced and the advantages of rushing to buy are not so many," Morales points out. .
In 2020 in the City of Buenos Aires, sales collapsed 44%
Morales emphasizes that it
is a good time to continue betting on construction.
"Now there are not so many difficulties in obtaining stockpiling materials. You have to opt for construction projects or spare parts that do not require more than 18 months. And anticipate the purchase of materials as much as possible."
Whoever has the tickets can
sell them on the blue for $ 143
and profit before the price escalation continues.
In that sense, last Thursday an alarm light was lit when INDEC reported that in January
the prices of construction supplies rose 5.9%
.
Another "disincentive" in this area is that the blue dollar has fallen by nine pesos so far this year.
So the one who bought in 2020 at $ 180, hardly wants to sell today at $ 143 to go to bricks.
As for cars, the numbers show an interesting rally as the dollar quiets down.
Although the market remains depressed, to the point that dealerships continue to close.
In January, 27,303 units were sold in the domestic market,
6.1%
above the volume of the same month last year.
Ricardo Salomé, president of ACARA, the chamber of dealerships, assured that, "
although today we have the blue dollar pressed, it is still an excellent business to buy a car
."
Speaking to the
Reperfilar
program
, he recommended "that no one expect the dollar to return to $ 200, it will not return," and explained that with the current dollar, people go out to buy because "there is
an interesting gap."
For the president of ACARA, "it is a very good time to buy", since cars that previously sold for
US $ 12,000 or US $ 13,000 today are sold 40% below
.
Even in some cases for 0 km the financing is maintained for up to 36 months at a zero rate.
Another way to dollarize consumption is to spend outside of Argentina.
More than three million people left the country last summer, with the tourist dollar at $ 82. This year with the Covid and the card dollar on the rise, it is estimated that they did not exceed 500,000.
But the advance of vaccines makes the passport attractive again.
"In this context, when the pandemic passes,
going abroad will be an opportunity
. But let's not forget that this dollar is not for all pockets," says Morales.
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