02/23/2021 6:00 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 02/23/2021 6:00 AM
The
blue dollar
was stable on Monday at the start of the week, around $ 147.
And analysts believe that, having dropped last week, it could
have found its floor
.
However, they insist that the factors that allowed this
currency summer
may extend its effect for a
few more weeks
, which would add peace of mind to the Government.
So far in February, the foreign exchange market has
found some calm
, in a context of improvement in international prices of raw materials and a greater liquidation of the agro-export sector.
The
payment of the Wealth Tax
also played a role
,
which made many investors turn to sales in order to comply with the treasury.
Precisely, the validity of this obligation is what can
stretch the drop in parallel dollars until the end of March
.
"The government is crossing the bridge towards the harvest, with a
favorable wind
," said Federico Furiase, of Eco Go.
The economist added: "There is a
selling flow
in the MEP dollar and in cash with liquid that has to do with the payment of the Wealth Tax and that can be extended for another month."
For Furiase, it can be thought that we are closer to a floor than to a ceiling.
"I do not rule out that this selling flow, which is estimated at
$ 140,000 million
, continues to press the gap downwards and that this triggers a disarmament of financial positions and that part of the market continues to sell," he said.
However, Matías Rajnerman, an economist at Ecolatina, explained that the calm in parallel prices has
an expiration date
: "In Argentina there is no margin for the blue dollar to continue falling, because inflation is never quiet. But also because all Factors that influenced the decline were
temporary, not structural.
It is not that the Argentine economy improved its expectations or improved its confidence, "he said, adding:" Although few people can access the savings dollar market, the fact that the blue is already cheaper than the solidarity one,
it puts a flat
on its price ".
Thus, although the Government could aim to maintain the exchange rate anchor to sustain inflation, this is an element that could complicate these plans.
The economist Hernán Hirsch pointed out: "I think that if certain factors remain stable, the exchange rate summer
could last until June
. I do see a more turbulent second semester for the exchange rate. However, this projection is made with the exception that the
inflation doesn't continue to skyrocket,
something that seems to be getting out of hand. "
From now on, certain elements of the current scenario could change, especially with a
lower liquidation of agriculture
in the second semester.
Analysts from Portfolio Personal explained: "It is important to take into account for next month, with a Central Bank lowering the rate of devaluation of the official dollar, that historically the liquidation of agriculture in March is also low; it is the third month with the lowest income of currencies from this sector if we take the data from 2003 ".
NE
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