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Corona: Economic researchers expect another slump

2021-02-24T11:31:57.525Z


The German economy grew surprisingly at the end of 2020, but the upswing is likely to be short-lived: Research institutes are already anticipating a decline again in the first quarter.


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Fitter at the automotive supplier ZF Friedrichshafen: "The momentum in the industry is likely to decrease"

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Felix Kästle / dpa

Numerous experts are expecting another economic slump as a result of the second corona wave and the ongoing shutdown.

According to the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), gross domestic product is likely to fall by around 1.5 percent in the first quarter.

And the state development bank KfW believes that a "difficult start to the new year" could even lead to a decline of 1.5 to three percent.

At the end of 2020, the German economy had developed surprisingly well.

Despite the second shutdown from November, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Wednesday.

According to initial calculations, at the end of January statisticians announced an increase of just 0.1 percent.

"Above all, industry has so far made it through the winter robustly," said DIW economic chief Claus Michelsen.

Despite temporary shortages of important intermediate goods in the automotive industry, the industry is likely to roughly maintain its production level in the final quarter of 2020.

According to the DIW, the service sectors are also getting through the lockdown better than they were just under a year ago.

The companies have now adjusted to the situation in many areas, it said.

Growth spurt in the third quarter

But from the point of view of KfW chief economist Fritzi Köhler-Geib, "the momentum in industry is likely to subside somewhat".

The increasing spread of the British virus mutant and the slow start of vaccination currently only suggest a cautious relaxation of the corona restrictions, said Köhler-Geib.

With increasing immunization, easing in the hospitality industry is likely to be possible in spring, KfW said.

From the third quarter onwards, “the macroeconomically relevant restrictions could largely be lifted” and an economic growth spurt could begin.

The pre-crisis level is expected to be reached again in the fourth quarter.

For the full year 2021, the bank expects "if the virus is successfully suppressed and a third wave is avoided" GDP growth of 3.3 percent - in November it had expected an increase of four percent.

According to the new forecast, economic growth in 2022 should be 3.4 percent.

Read the background to the Civey method here.

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hej / Reuters / AFP

Source: spiegel

All business articles on 2021-02-24

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