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Blue dollar: after the February crash, the market talks about a floor and makes forecasts for March

2021-02-26T19:04:24.027Z

The price of the informal dollar is already falling $ 8 in the month, and analysts believe that it could start to recover. What data will have to be taken into account for in March.



Soledad Navarro

02/26/2021 3:16 PM

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

Updated 02/26/2021 3:50 PM

The blue dollar is sold this Friday at $ 145, recovering the $ 2 that it had lost in the previous day, so it accumulates a fall of $ 2 in the week and returns to the levels of September 21.

In this way, you get $ 50 below the maximum of $ 195 that it touched in October.

If it closes like this, the US currency will have lost $ 8 in the month, and analysts believe that this is the bottom. 


Since Thursday, the price is $ 12 below what the "solidarity dollar" costs, which is almost $ 157, according to the average of the financial entities that the Central Bank (BCRA) relieves.

Analysts believe that the dollar is already at its bottom and that in March it will begin to recover

, although everything will depend, as always, on economic decisions and the BCRA in monetary matters.

The expiration of the tax on great wealth, scheduled for the end of next month, will play a key role

as many players can

disarm positions to face the payment

.

On the contrary, parallel exchange rates regained ground and rose for the third day in a row.

The MEP dollar rises to $ 143.40 (+ 1%) and the "cash with liquid" rises to $ 146.98 (+ 1.1%).

In any case, these prices lost value compared to the end of January.

So far this month,

the MEP has fallen 3.1%, while the CCL has fallen 2.6%

.

On the other hand, the wholesale dollar opened the wheel at $ 89.83, seven cents above Thursday's close, while the retail dollar remains at $ 94.50 on the screens of Banco Nación (BNA).

So far this week, the official exchange rate added 67 cents

, a rise higher than that recorded in the previous five days.

If this closing value is confirmed,

the official exchange rate will close February with a rise of 2.8%

, well below the 3.8% it gained in January and below the private estimate of the consumer price index (CPI ) that this month would be around 3.5%.

And the tourist dollar is trading at $ 123.66, a value that arises by adding 30% to the price of the US currency in the official market.

In the day of this Friday, the BCRA bought US $ 55 million and with that the accumulated of the month is US $ 632 million, according to market sources.

These purchases add up to US $ 607 million in December and 157 million in January.

The strong Intervention of the Entity to make reserves helped a tail The Currency remained depressed.

The month that is leaving and the one that arrives

If the currency closes in the registers in which it operates this Friday, the

bet on it will have been clearly negative in February

, with a registered decrease of 5.2%, and the exchange gap between the blue and the official one is again located by above 60%, close to the April low.

"The dollar is already lower than it should be the floor that is marked by the solidarity dollar, and in the same way that the rise was exaggerated at $ 195, now it also exaggerates the decline," the financial analyst told Clarín Christian Buteler.

In coincidence with this position, the analyst Rubén Úlloa believes that "we are in the final stretch of the fall as regards the blue and the parallels of the" cash with settlement "and the MEP. The zone of $ 140 and $ 135 that reached all three, it is the consolidation zone, from there it will begin to recover ".

On what may happen in the coming months, Buteler assured that although everything depends on the decisions taken by the Economy and the Central Bank, "there are possibilities of being able to stabilize the exchange rate."

"If the BCRA maintains the amount of money without issuing, and the Economy manages to reduce the fiscal deficit

in a strong way, and instead of being financed by the Central it continues to do so through the market (taking debt),

I think there are chances of being able to stabilize the exchange rate,

"he said.

Anyway, Buteler pointed out that

"if due to electoral issues or pressure on spending, money has to be issued, it will be very complicated."

For his part, Úlloa hopes that in the coming months

the dollar will begin to recover a little

, and that, in his opinion, "will be linked not only to local events, but also to what happens internationally with the rate hike. and the impact that emergencies may have ".

The month that begins is key due to the update of prices, which puts pressure on inflation, and on the other hand, a strong inflow of dollars from exports is expected, in the second part of March, which for Buteler "could play a favor ".

In addition, the expiration of the Tax on Great Wealth that expires at the end of next month and that could cause investors to sell dollars to meet that payment.

In that sense, Gustavo Quintana, from PR Cambios, added that

"it is likely that in March there will be some depreciation destined to attend to expenses."

In addition, 

"theoretically by the end of March, the impact of the thick harvest should begin and we will probably see some somewhat greater revenue stream," he said.


"We ended a period (in February) that, due to seasonal terms, always produces a downturn,

now March is key because liquidity can return

: You have the stock market going down, bonds going down, and the local investor needs to protect their pesos and does not find many alternatives other than to wear shoes with an asset that hedges against inflation, such as a bond adjusted by CER or a fixed term UVA, or directly buy dollars ", concluded Úlloa.

SN

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2021-02-26

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