Updated 03/02/2021 17:29
In the speech that the Government began to elaborate, two privileged creditors such as the International Monetary Fund and the Paris Club would be
for the problems of the external balance this year.
This line of reasoning is based on the fact that in May the Government must
pay US $ 2.3 billion to
the Paris Club
(a world body that assists indebted countries) and in September,
US $ 4.8 billion to the IMF
, and it does not believe that it will have any money for everything or additional financing.
Thus, in the logic that they were building between the Casa Rosada, the Senate and the Ministry of Economy, they consider that practically Argentina
would not have
balance of payments problems
if it did not have to comply with those US $ 7.1 billion
from two international organizations.
It will be
Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner and Martín Guzmán have low understanding of how the world works and do they think that rejecting these payments would have more benefits than costs?
Of course not.
But the election year rules.
Until now, Minister Martín Guzmán had been drawing a line that
with respect to the short-term financial future.
Under that ropeway, Guzmán would reach an agreement with the IMF in May, which would imply getting a loan to pay this year's maturities
US $ 40,000 million necessary to meet the commitments of 2022 and 2023.
That imaginary line added a supposed go-ahead from the IMF to
refinance the US $ 2,300 million that expire in May
with the Paris Club and thus clear the financial horizon, allowing a reduction in the astonishing Argentine country risk rate, which is at 1,534 points.
But now everything changes.
swerved in the negotiation with the IMF
by announcing that he would initiate "a criminal lawsuit" against the officials of the Mauricio Macri government who signed the agreement for the loan of US $ 55,000 million.
And, after cardboard, he announced that the agreement that he negotiates under the umbrella of Kristalina Georgieva,
must be approved by Congress.
Thus he made it clear that the possibility of reaching an agreement in May, as Martín Guzmán said, is
close to zero
"We are in no rush",
They say in the Government ratifying the order of the vice president that in electoral years
there is no talk
of fiscal adjustment or increase in rates
His message is clear:
first try to win the elections and get the Fund in the queue.
But that definition of basic Kirchnerism often collides with the shortage of dollars to finance the adventure of expanding consumption on the basis that wages rise above inflation.
Will it make it in 2021?
The Government is clear that, after vaccines,
stability of the dollar
becomes the electoral argument par excellence and decided to
One of them is twofold: the greater supply of foreign exchange for the liquidation of exports and for the sale of dollars from taxpayers who must comply with the wealth tax.
The Central Bank celebrates the
US $ 180 million
that increased reserves
on February 1 and that at the beginning of the month, when the possibility of buying the US $ 200 quota is renewed, purchases were below US $ 100 million, less than in February.
But, in addition, and this had already been coming since the end of last month, there was an
offer of foreign exchange by producers
who had retained grains and who, with the good price of soybeans (US $ 520 per ton), chose to sell.
The Central Bank is gambling that
between soybeans and good rains they
could get the foreign exchange to face the Paris Club, "but it is not enough for everything," they say.
So, will December be reached without IMF dollars or without a strong devaluation?
The bet of Economy is that the capitalization of the IMF in US $ 500,000 million that the G7 would decide in the coming weeks, would leave the equivalent to
US $ 3,500 million for the fact of being a member of the organization
and with that they would be to "discuss" the expiration of September.
tied with wire
and betting, for example, that importers give him the "good news" that they will demand less than US $ 4,000 million per month to pay abroad.
In the Government they dream that the economy grows without having to increase imports in the short term, an unsustainable result in longer terms.
But with a strict cap such as the current one, they could authorize payments with drop-counters.
Strict exchange rate, soy dollars, taxpayer dollars to pay the wealth tax,
freezing of rates
until a differential system is implemented that favors lower-income consumers, control of food prices and basic necessities constitutes the scheme
that outline from the Government for the electoral year.
And the investments?
With a pandemic, lack of vaccines and elections, everything can wait.
Meanwhile, the government joins in an unprecedented onslaught against the Supreme Court of Justice and the Judiciary, and in deepening the rift by holding the opposition responsible for everything as if they were newcomers to power.
The population expects vaccines and
checks unfulfilled promises every day.
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