Ana Clara Pedotti
03/02/2021 8:20 AM
Updated 03/02/2021 10:07
Despite the fact that the mentions regarding the evolution of the exchange rate for this year were the great absent in Alberto Fernández's speech at the inaugural session of Congress, the question is: if the Government has a chance to extend the
"exchange rate peace"
, key in an electoral year with inflationary context, in case the agreement with the Monetary Fund is delayed again.
"In electoral year, with stocks,
with soybeans above US $ 500 per
ton and with a Central Bank that has a portfolio of AL30 in nominal US $ 4.3 billion, the Government has a margin without validating a discrete jump in the exchange rate In other words, using the same strategy that was seen in the odd electoral years (2011, 2013 and 2015), which is that the
official dollar and rates
are a semi-anchor to try to make wages recover against inflation ", Eco Go economist Federico Furiase affirmed, but warned:
"The problem is with what gap it reaches October
: no gasoline in the BCRA reserves, no access to financial markets, with a significant fiscal imbalance."
For the economist, with this scenario, an agreement with the Fund is key:
"But by policy, in an electoral year it was never going to be validated
. That is why I do not rule out that the Government reaches
a light arrangement
; that is, that positions approach this year, but that the effects are only seen in 2022, "he said.
The reading of the economist Gabriel Zelpo goes beyond the words of the President: "I would not be guided by the speech. Regardless of that, the important thing is if the adjustments that the organism asks of them in an electoral year are faced.
But even, reaching an agreement, the exchange rate calm is not guaranteed, "he
Lorena Giorgio, from Econviews,
focused on the gap
: "Although there is some room to delay the dollar,
the problem is that with a 60% gap the economy cannot function normally
. At least until the middle of the year, the Government has a certain margin to continue with this policy of a lower
It will not be free
for the Government to keep the exchange rate depreciating at a lower rate than monthly inflation, "he said.
However, the projections of this economist are not as enthusiastic as those of Minister Martín Guzmán: "Although we think that the exchange rate will advance a little slower than inflation, we estimate an
inflation of 50%
and an exchange rate with a Annual increase of around 43%,
far from the 29% and 25%
that the Government highlights, "he said.
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