Ezequiel Burgo
03/06/2021 8:26 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 03/06/2021 8:26 PM
Martín Guzmán knew right away that
doing economic policy in Hipólito Yrigoyen and Balcarce was not going to be like teaching economics at 119th and Broadway, on the Columbia campus, Manhattan
.
A witness tells of a dialogue that took place in December 2019:
"Be careful because you are going to do something that many tried and ended with
complaints in court
for almost a decade
," a renowned economist told the minister that time.
Guzmán came with the illusion of implementing his debt restructuring model with private companies for US $ 83,000 million and reducing the country risk with a sling.
Only that he had not noticed the miseries of politics and the judicialization of economic decisions
.
Federico Sturzenegger, Daniel Marx, among others, paraded through the courts for a minor operation.
The minister finalized the swap and shielded himself (he followed the advice of that economist) by getting Congress to endorse his proposal, which can now show that he did it according to a law.
But Alberto Fernández's decision to send a complaint to the Justice to investigate Mauricio Macri's loan at the IMF, raised the issue that the experienced economist mentioned to the minister.
How do you know if someone from the opposition will not do the same to him?
The day after the President's speech before Congress and the Central Bank statement, close to Macri they slipped that
Guzmán or Miguel Pesce could in any case also be denounced
for the sale of Central Bank bonds and reserves in recent months.
They will do it?
Around the Minister of Economy they admit that the economist goes through the hardest days of his administration.
Worse even than when the blue dollar hit $ 195 in October or the gap touched 130%.
That exchange flash was in any case the ratification that the Rosada had to pay attention to him and not to Miguel Pesce when in October the Central Bank had tightened the stocks more because the reserves kept leaving.
Guzmán won that battle, undoing several of the bank's rules and even
proposing to speed up an understanding with the IMF for this year
.
Now with the dollar more stable and the scare dissipating at all levels of the Government,
Guzmán's agenda received three scratches this week
when the President threatened to file a lawsuit against the debt that Mauricio Macri had taken of US $ 44,000 million with the IMF.
Why are the interventions of Fernández first, and after the vice president (on Thursday before the Justice), are trampled on with the agenda of the Minister of Economy?
Let's see.
In the first place, Guzman said that his intention was always to pass the agreement with the IMF through
Congress
.
This week the law was regulated so that precisely this step was carried out.
The government will have to seek dialogue with the opposition if it intends to move forward.
But if the ruling party files a complaint in court that the loan that Mauricio Macri requested from the IMF violated the Constitution and administrative procedures, the minister's roadmap will be complicated.
What support could it receive from the opposition if the Government at the same time denounces it in court?
Second, close to Guzman they fear that the
judicialization
of the loan with the IMF will be a boomerang: tomorrow he or Pesce could be denounced for selling bonds or reserves to support the price of the dollar.
What reason or motive would there be for someone from the opposition not to do it if the FdT does it today?
Finally, and thirdly, the speeches of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner (their presentation before the Justice, ascribing to the judges their responsibility for the bad economic situation of the country) go to the detriment of a mantra that Guzmán has been building as his profile: to carry
calm and tranquility
to the economy.
Country risk increased this week from 1,515 points to 1,593.
And since the swap closed, the country risk went from about 1,100 points to touching 1,600.
In the same period, the country risks of Brazil, Chile and Colombia have fallen.
If these three points are not met, the scenario could be:
- That
there is no agreement with the IMF
not because La Cámpora does not want to, but because the
opposition
does not provide support to pass through Congress and, ergo, the Government can blame Juntos for El Cambio for the sinking of the negotiations.
- Signing fewer resolutions, slowing down the administration or the conduct of economic policy for fear of denunciations, would
slow down an
already lethargic administration.
-
Uncertainty
instead of calm and tranquility will threaten the
dollar
and
country risk
.
"The economy is calmer even as inflation accelerated
,
"
says a report from the Broda Study this week.
But the
risks
are there and the crosses of Cristina Fernández complicate.
"Washington, we have a problem,"
could soon be heard from the Ministry of Economy to the IMF.
Look also
The Government analyzes exposing the mega loan from the IMF to the government of Mauricio Macri at the UN
