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Changes in the way inflation is measured: what data does the government analyze

2021-03-08T18:49:37.074Z


Indec seeks to update the reference basket to make the CPI, and the changes in consumption caused by the pandemic will play a key role.


Federico Furiase

03/08/2021 3:37 PM

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

Updated 03/08/2021 3:43 PM

As is the case in all countries, after a period of time, the Statistics Institute updates the weights of the consumption basket used to compile the Price Index, based on a household expenditure survey.

The INDEC CPI currently uses weights from a 2004 survey.

 The Government is just now working on updating these data with the 2018 survey. But

the changes in the consumption basket that the pandemic brought about will probably also be taken into account

for the formulation of a new index in the future.

It must be taken into account that once the new weights are available, for the updated index to be available, at least 9 months of survey must have passed using the new structure.

Conclusion

: INDEC has just started to work on something logical, updating the weights of the CPI basket, and it

will take a long time before it can lead to a new way of measuring inflation.

New CER index and bonds

It is logical to update the weights of the basket.

The problem is that given the track record on this issue

and the rally that the CER curve had been having,

the market took the opportunity to take profit and exit the CER curve

, but we understand that once the market clears, there will be a buying opportunity especially in the longer sections of the CER curve, since updating weights is a normal part of the evolution of an index and does not imply a risk of manipulation per se.

In a context where Finance has been stretching the maturities of pesos along the CER curve, a necessary condition to keep the exchange gap under control, it

is crucial that the Government clarifies this situation as soon as possible.

YN

Look also

Inflation is as out of control as vaccines

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2021-03-08

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