Faced with the announced decline in oil and the climate emergency, French manufacturers in the sector intend to reinvent themselves so as not to disappear.
They argue for the development of new low-carbon liquid fuels, which however still faces obstacles.
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"
The oil industry is going to contract and we are not fighting against that,
" Olivier Gantois, president of the French Union of Petroleum Industries (UFIP), said on Tuesday, presenting the outlook for the sector at a press conference. .
This decline also figures prominently in the scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to limit global warming, he recalled.
Faced with the erosion of their core business, manufacturers are already trying to develop new activities: electricity from renewable sources or gas, hydrogen production, CO2 capture and sequestration, etc.
But professionals also hope to be able to continue selling low carbon liquid fuels (CLBC) in the future, in place of current fossil gasoline and diesel.
"
We will undoubtedly become something like the Union of liquid energy suppliers
", imagines the president of Ufip.
"
The future lies in the use and deployment of more advanced biofuels and in particular the very promising avenues of cellulose decomposition
", considers Olivier Gantois in particular.
Biofuels are already in use, but new generation ones, made from co-products from forestry and agriculture, would not compete with other uses, assure manufacturers.
The other avenue is that of "
synthetic fuels
", "
fuels resulting from the recombination of hydrogen with CO2
", according to Mr. Gantois.
"
With all of these solutions, which are very realistic solutions for us at this scale, we have a proposal to decarbonize the fuels for the different types of mobility by 2050,
" he said.
Without directly citing the rise of the electric vehicle, he mentioned the comparative advantages of these liquid fuels: they can use existing infrastructures and do not require new engines.
Renewable but not unlimited
But "
they cost more to produce and to ensure that the cost is acceptable to the consumer, it will be necessary to put in place a regulatory system, no doubt fiscal,
" added Mr. Gantois.
France has foreseen the end of sales of fossil fuel cars by 2040. But Ufip pleads so that this is not the end of the thermal engine.
"
We must convince the public authorities in particular that we are going to use fuels that are truly virtuous with regard to the environment
", declared the president of Ufip, insisting on the lower carbon content of the new solutions.
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"
If this is the case, there is a place tomorrow for thermal vehicles
", he assured.
But the climate balance of biofuels derived from wood must also include the carbon that these trees, cut, will not absorb, in any case before the growth of new trees.
"
Now is the time to reduce the pressure on forests and let them absorb more carbon, let them grow,
" argues Sylvain Angerand, from the NGO Canopée.
These forests take a long time to renew themselves and "
renewable does not mean unlimited
", he emphasizes.
However, “
there is very strong competition today for these wood by-products
”: energy, paper, wood panels for construction, textiles, bioplastics, etc.
In addition to the environmental challenge, the oil sector suffered in 2020 a drop in demand caused by the Covid-19 pandemic (-53% for the demand for road fuels in April 2020) but also a collapse in refining margins in a context overcapacity.
"
If the refining margins remain at the level at which they are, there could be a major impact on employment,
" warned Mr. Gantois.
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France has 8 refineries in mainland France and one in Overseas.
Total intends to cease refining at the end of 2023 at its Grandpuits (Seine-et-Marne) site, in order to produce biofuels and bioplastics in particular.
