After the health shock, global oil demand is expected to take two years to return to pre-crisis levels, then continue to grow by at least 2026 to hit a new high unless hampered in the name of protection climate, said the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday.
On the other hand, “
stronger measures and behavioral changes could soon cause a peak in demand,
” underlines the Agency in its Oil 2021 report, which formulates projections for five years.
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In the current state of policies, this demand would reach 104 million barrels per day (mb / d) by 2026, or 4% more than in 2019.
Asia will account for 90% of the increase.
In contrast, demand in the 37 developed OECD countries is unlikely to return to pre-2020 levels, according to the IEA.
Petrochemicals will continue to stimulate the world's appetite for black gold.
Gasoline demand could she, having already reached its "
peak
" efficiency gains and transition to electric vehicles offsetting transport growth in developing countries.
Kerosene consumption, the sector most affected last year, should gradually return to its pre-Covid level.
"
The Covid-19 crisis has caused a historic decline in global demand for oil, but not necessarily a lasting decline,
" summarizes the director of the IEA, Fatih Birol.
“
Carrying out an organized transition away from oil is essential to meeting climate goals, but requires major changes in government policies and behavior.
Without this, global demand for oil is set to increase each year by 2026,
”he adds.
According to him, "
for demand to peak soon, significant measures are needed immediately to improve energy efficiency standards, support sales of electric vehicles and reduce the use of petroleum in the sector. electric.
"
These actions, combined with the increased use of teleworking, more recycling and less business travel, could reduce the demand for oil by 5.6 mb / d by 2026, "
which means that it would never come back to its
uses.
levels before the pandemic,
”underlines the IEA.
