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The dollar gap stuck the tail in inflation and puts more and more pressure on Guzmán

2021-03-18T13:31:34.582Z


Wholesale prices registered the highest jump in the entire Fernández era and since PASO. Why imported inputs keep increasing if the dollar is ironed.


Ezequiel Burgo

03/17/2021 18:07

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

Updated 03/18/2021 10:08

Wholesale inflation registered a strong jump in February (6.1%).

It was the

highest figure in the entire government of Alberto Fernández

and since August 2019 (11.2%), when the

PASO

were held

.

The number is not encouraging.

Not only because the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, is playing at an inflation of 30% for this year, but also because the wholesale inflation data reveals a deeper and more invisible phenomenon that occurs in the convoluted roads of the Argentine economy.

February wholesale inflation was 6.1% but according to INDEC data,

imported products increased 7.4%

.

How can that turn out if

the dollar rose less than half

?

The wholesale exchange rate increased 3.5% in the same period.

That answer is not necessary to look for it in any excel.

Simply what is happening is that entrepreneurs who import with the $ 90 dollar have doubts and uncertainty (justified or not) about which dollar they will replace the same merchandise, the $ 90 or the $ 150?

And just in case they highlight.

Will Matías Kulfas and Paula Español let businessmen replace imported supplies?

Will the Central Bank sell them dollars?

In the event that they can import but must buy dollars in the financial market: what will the price be?

Rudiger Dornbusch, a famous economist, used to say that in economics things take time to happen but when they happen they happen faster than you think.

And this that is seen with wholesale prices is an example:

they are already adjusting

but as the official dollar is lagging behind,

the pot has more and more pressure

.

While Kulfas and Español review the excel, Guzmán will slow down the rate at which the dollar rises and took a plane to Washington.

"The dollar matured rising to 4% monthly average and in a few months we will see it at 1.5%"

, says Federico Furiase.

"The IMF is key

"

Most of the episodes of inflationary acceleration since the exit from convertibility were correlated with the increase in the price of the dollar.

"What we are seeing since the last quarter of last year is that prices rise here despite the fact that there is no discrete jump in the dollar," says Luciano Cohan, an economist at Seido.

“There is inertial inflation greater than in the past.

The cruising speed of monthly retail inflation today is 3.5% -4% ”

.

By last.

The prices of primary products also put pressure on local costs.

Crude for example rose 20% in February

and grains face good prospects after Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday.

But what is good for the dollars that Guzmán is looking for complicates it for his plan to deflate the economy with an exchange gap.

And also for his task of having to raise the dollars that the IMF will ask to collect his credit of US $ 44,000 million.

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2021-03-18

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