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According to an analysis by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad), the global economy will recover from the corona shock faster than expected in September 2020.
Because of the trillion-dollar economic stimulus packages in many countries, it expects growth of 4.7 percent for 2021, after a forecast of 4.3 percent six months ago, as it reported in Geneva on Thursday.
The driving force is the US economy, which is growing faster than expected.
At the end of this year, the global economy was still more than ten trillion dollars below the level that would have been reached without the coronavirus pandemic, writes the Unctad secretariat.
Developing countries are particularly hard hit.
The UN report shows clear differences in economic development.
The US Democrats' stimulus package is likely to unleash a strong boom in the US.
Unctad expects US growth of 4.5 percent.
That is a lot, especially compared to the moderate decline in economic power of »only« 3.5 percent in the USA in 2020.
Europe has fallen deep
The situation is different in the eurozone, where the slump in 2020 was more than twice as strong, minus 7.3 percent.
In 2021, however, the recovery there will be weaker than in the USA: The UN is only expecting an upturn of 4 percent.
In other words: Europe is falling further behind the USA, at least in terms of aggregate economic power.
The economic recovery began in the 3rd quarter of 2020 and will continue this year, albeit at different rates depending on the region, reported the Unctad Secretariat.
Unfortunately, there are already signs of a return to austerity - that is foolish after the deep recession.
There is little prospect that the particularly affected countries will be strengthened now in order to be better prepared for future shocks.
Too little is being done to achieve this, and problems such as inequality, indebtedness and lack of investment remain.
"Without a change of course, an unbalanced economic recovery, vulnerability and persistent economic uncertainty will become the new normal for many countries," writes the secretariat.
Unctad, founded in Geneva in 1964, advocates the interests of countries with low and middle incomes in the United Nations.
It has 195 member countries.
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beb / dpa