Ezequiel Burgo
03/24/2021 21:38
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 03/24/2021 10:55 PM
This Wednesday the differences between
Cristina Kirchner and Martín Guzmán
by the course of the debt negotiation.
They seem technical questions but, even when they are, there are fundamental questions that underlie how each one thinks that the country should resolve
the restructuring of the payment of the debt of US $ 44,000 million with the IMF
.
Let's see.
The position of Martín Guzmán.
The minister last October, just when the blue dollar reached $ 195 and the gap was close to 130%, announced that Argentina was asking the IMF to begin negotiations for an
Extended Facilities loan
(EFF).
It is a
ten-year
payment plan
(actually between 7 and 10) and in return the country must commit to some adjustments in its economic structure and rules (pension system, tax system, transparency of information, among others).
They are standardized programs that the agency offers in its gondola of yesteryear, which Argentina took twice (in the 90s) and which, curiously, was the roadmap that Nicolás Dujovne (Mauricio Macri's former Minister of Economy) had devised for
repaying stand-by disbursements
: Argentina and the IMF have always thought that the evolution of that millionaire loan that Macri received would be through an EFF and repaying over time.
Cristina's position.
For the vice president, refinancing ten-year debt
is not enough
.
He said it this Wednesday.
"We should all make an effort, from the ruling party or from the opposition," he said, reminding the government of Mauricio Macri that he requested the loan
.
“If it were from the opposition, they should collaborate and insist that they give us a longer term and much lower interest rate than the one the IMF wants to apply to debt restructuring.
We all know that
the terms and the rates that are intended are not only unacceptable but that we cannot pay
because we do not have the money
to pay.
It is not a matter of subjectivity ”, remarked Cristina.
IMF deadlines are established by
statute
.
Guzmán himself explained on March 12 that
he was not going to negotiate a rule change
, as the vice president intends.
“The Extended Facilities program has a repayment period of up to ten years.
But it is not a question to be negotiated.
The advanced countries agreed to set rules of the game for the international economy.
Those rules have not helped less developed countries, it has led to more inequality.
But the rules of the game are
not negotiated unilaterally with a country.
Being able to have a different program would require changing the international financial architecture, and that
would require the support of the United States, China, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and more advanced countries.
This must be taken into account when Argentina interacts with the world ”, warned the minister.
Cristina made mention this Wednesday precisely of
the role of the United States
and that it could eventually help in that direction.
Referring to
Washington
, the vice president asked herself the following question aloud: “Could we not claim or ask with all the sweetness in the world that it is time for them to
make us some gesture
?
Among those who banked the coup of March 24 that made us ointment -Cristina Kirchner had previously quoted a note from Clarín on the declassification of the files of the US dictatorship-, they banked the English in the Malvinas War and were central to the IMF violating all articles of its statute.
Footnote: just when the vice president was speaking, the President was talking with the head of the World Bank and a key player in the Donald Trump government when it came to
granting the US $ 54,000 million to Argentina
: David Malpass, an experienced economist in Washington.
The economist Emmanuel Alvarez Agis, who was Cristina Kirchner's Vice Minister of Economy between 2013 and 2015,
put numbers to the proposal of the vice president
and what the Argentine economy is playing with this.
Or rather, what is at stake who or who aspire to a mandate between 2023 and 2027.
According to the
basic plan of the IMF
, Argentina, instead of paying its debt between 2021 and 2024, does it between 2026 and 2031. In that case, the profile of annual capital maturities with the organization would be US $ 7.5 billion during those six years.
With a
20-year repayment scheme,
annual capital maturities would be US $ 2,800 million between 2026 and 2041.
Guzmán does not have the tools to get that loan (20 years).
Now what do you do?
The IMF rules were written in 1944. Argentina intends to change them in 2021.
Quite
audacity
.
Look also
Alberto Fernández reiterated to the head of the World Bank his willingness to reach an agreement with the IMF
Martín Guzmán went through the United States Treasury and the Economy remained silent
