Annabella quiroga
03/31/2021 1:52 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 03/31/2021 1:52 PM
The blue dollar closes the first quarter at $ 141, 25 pesos below the price it had on the first day of 2021. At this level for two months it
has been cheaper than the savings dollar
, which today is sold at $ 161.
With these quotes, what happened in the summer of 2020, before the start of the pandemic, is repeated.
At the start of last year, the blue dollar was sold at $ 75 and the solidarity dollar at $ 82. Until then, the savings dollar
only had the PAIS tax of 30%
, but it did not yet have the 35% surcharge as an advance on Earnings .
At that time, the demand on the saving dollar was limited.
With the stock of US $ 200 per month,
only 500,000 people
bought the authorized currencies each month.
Everything changed with the start of the quarantine: the demand for savings dollars began to grow and the price of alternative dollars began to climb.
Thus, the blue reached
$ 195
in October, when the dollar saved, already with the Earnings surcharge, was worth $ 135. At that time the demand, marked by the reinforcement of the stocks, fell to 1 million people for the solidarity dollar, far from the peak of 4 million that they had bought in August.
Why is the blue dollar today worth
20 pesos less
than the "solidarity" dollar?
The overshooting of last October is one of the reasons for this phenomenon.
For analysts, the currency
became more expensive in an artificial way
and then it was readjusted to the mood of the market.
The October blue dollar peak was also replicated in financial dollars, cash with liquid and the MEP.
But as of November, the government began to show
signs of less fiscal expansion.
Aldo Abram, economist at Libertad y Progreso, points out that "until October the Central Bank was issuing pesos at rates that exceeded 90% year-on-year. The supercepo generated
a run against the peso
that brought the informal exchange rate to more than $ 190 ".
v 1.5
Settlement of field dollars
»January-March of each year.
In millions of dollars
Tap to explore the data
Source:
CIARA-CEC
Infographic:
Clarín
For Abram, this did not end in a crisis "thanks to the changes introduced by Minister Martín Guzmán as of November, eliminating some
harmful restrictions
on foreign exchange operations and reducing monetary financing, taking more credit in the domestic market."
These changes "helped reassure people who were fleeing the local currency, so they stopped doing so or even some
began to sell the dollars,
" he says.
Pax exchange
In November, the sustained decline in alternative dollars began as the Central Bank and ANSeS began to
intervene in the market
, selling bonds to prevent the price from continuing to rise.
With financial dollars "contained",
the blue also began to decline
while the savings dollar maintained its steady rise.
With the arrival of 2021, other reasons were added that contributed to appease the blue dollar.
The holidays made those who had bought tickets in the spring
go out to sell them
to face expenses in pesos.
This
increased the supply of dollars
in a market with very little demand.
At the same time, the income of the dollars from the harvest was giving the Central Bank more and more margin to buy foreign currency and thus maintain the exchange rate.
Another element that pushes the price of the blue dollar down is the Wealth Tax, which leads to increased
sales in the informal segment
to meet expiration.
AQ
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