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The four scenarios where the Spanish economy plays it

2021-04-10T03:57:08.601Z


Vice President Nadia Calviño reveals where the Government is looking to save the recovery Vice President Nadia Calviño, during the press conference this Friday Ministry of Economy A glass-enclosed skyscraper in Frankfurt. The corner bar of any Spanish city. The factory of an unknown Belgian town. And even a court in Karlsruhe. The recovery of the Spanish economy is played out in various scenarios. They are, following the previous order, the headquarters of the European Central Bank, t


Vice President Nadia Calviño, during the press conference this Friday Ministry of Economy

A glass-enclosed skyscraper in Frankfurt.

The corner bar of any Spanish city.

The factory of an unknown Belgian town.

And even a court in Karlsruhe.

The recovery of the Spanish economy is played out in various scenarios.

They are, following the previous order, the headquarters of the European Central Bank, the businesses that depend on the agility of direct aid to survive, one of the great centers of production of the vaccines that must immunize Europeans and the German Constitutional Court, that threatens to delay the delivery of community funds from the recovery plan.

During the jug of cold water that this Friday represented the reduction of the economic forecasts for 2021 by the Spanish Government by more than three points (they predict that GDP will advance by 6.5% instead of 9.8% in October), the economic vice president, Nadia Calviño, listed four factors as fundamental for the economic future of Spain, all of them linked to the aforementioned scenarios.

  • The Government lowers the growth forecast for 2021 to 6.5% due to the weak start of the year

The vaccination campaign

.

The Government's objectives are already on the table: 33 million Spaniards vaccinated at the end of August.

But the uncertainties persist.

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has found “possible links” between very rare cases of thrombi and the AstraZeneca vaccine, and is investigating four similar cases with the Janssen vaccine.

The probability of suffering this type of ailments is so small that the EMA has insisted that the benefits continue to be much greater than the risks, but the fear is already being noticed: Madrid says that only a third of those mentioned on Thursday attended get vaccinated with AstraZeneca.

Meanwhile, Brussels reiterates that even without using the injectable from the Anglo-Swedish firm, the EU would be in a position to reach that 70% threshold this summer, but the loss of confidence in one of the large suppliers is not good news: the season Summer tourism largely depends on the degree of immunization.

The United Kingdom, the first issuer of tourists to Spain, finalizes a list of countries to which the British can travel in summer without having to go through quarantine afterwards.

If Spain is not among those countries, the premise under which the Government has prepared the growth forecast may falter: it estimates the arrival of about half of international tourists compared to 2019.

The European recovery plan

.

The news that the German Constitutional Court decided to provisionally block the ratification of the European recovery plan did not sit well in the countries most affected by the pandemic, in need of the arrival of these subsidies as soon as possible.

Few European leaders doubt that, one way or another, the funds will eventually be disbursed, but in an instrument designed to react in times of crisis, the delays are measured in job losses and the disappearance of companies.

The comparative grievance with the United States, which has already distributed three checks to millions of citizens, has displayed a much greater stimulus, and envisions a much faster recovery, making the slowness of Europe even more infuriating.

Along with the external flank of the necessary ratification of the plan by the capitals, there are also internal problems.

Calviño has insisted that the Government has advanced through debt the funds for this year that Brussels will provide later, but its execution is not complying with the Government's forecasts.

In October he expected that they would add 2.6 points to GDP this year, and now he transfers part of those benefits to 2022: he estimates that they will provide GDP with a boost of 2% in 2021 and 2022, without clarifying how much corresponds to each year.

Global financial stability

.

The European Central Bank has kept risk premiums at bay during the crisis despite the fact that public debt has not stopped rising.

Nadia Calviño called on Friday to maintain current expansive monetary and fiscal policies at the global level, although she indicated that she does not believe that they are at risk for now, given that she perceives unanimity among the great powers on their continuity.

The package recently launched by Joe Biden in the United States, worth 1.9 trillion dollars, may have a positive impact on Spanish exports, according to the minister.

The restrictions that continue to slow down the activity of EU partners, large consumers of Spanish products, are currently one of the great concerns in the commercial sphere.

Evolution of the productive fabric

. The last of the great concerns is the capacity of the support mechanisms for small companies and the self-employed to stop their disappearance and the destruction of jobs. The effectiveness of the package of 11,000 million euros approved by the Government to rescue viable companies, of which 7,000 will be dedicated to direct aid delivered by the autonomous communities, remains to be demonstrated, as well as whether the amount is sufficient or falls short to avoid the bankruptcy of profitable firms. As Calviño stated, the duration of the pandemic will be a key factor in knowing how many pieces disappear from the board and do not resist until the large, unrestricted reopening that presumably must occur once sufficient immunity is achieved.

Source: elparis

All business articles on 2021-04-10

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