The year 2020 will remain as a paradox.
France with the pandemic has experienced one of the most serious health and economic crises the world has known, causing the country's GDP to plunge by 9% in a few months.
However, only 32,184 companies requested and obtained support from the commercial or judicial court, a decrease of 38.1% compared to the previous year.
Unheard of for 30 years ... And since the beginning of the year, the situation seemed to remain on the same pace with 7,406 business failures, a decline of 32.1% compared to the first quarter of 2020, according to the cabinet specialized Alteres.
Except that since mid-March, the situation has changed radically with an explosion of 155% of failures compared to the same period of 2020. Even if it must be taken into account that during the first containment, last year, the proceedings have frozen due to court closures, the surge could be a harbinger of the wave of insolvencies feared by many analysts.
Undoubtedly, all the aid measures put in place by the government have had a dampening effect to prevent many companies from pulling the curtain.
"The strategy of support for the real economy deployed by the State has proved effective" It would have enabled around 20,000 companies put on a drip to escape failure in 2020, according to the Alteres cabinet.
63,000 French companies called "zombies"
"The month of March could however constitute a tipping point", underlines Thierry Millon, director of studies of this firm.
March is for many companies to take stock.
"This is where concrete figures emerge on the distress of hundreds of companies which find themselves in default of payments, despite public support mechanisms," he adds.
Unfortunately, the figures speak for themselves: in March, 79% of judgments ended in a direct liquidation of the company.
"A level never reached for 20 years", continues Thierry Millon.
Several elements also suggest that the expected economic recovery could be accompanied by social plans or cascading failures when state support measures gradually come to an end.
The Alteres firm recalls that some 63,000 French companies called "zombies", that is to say already fragile before the onset of the pandemic, will have difficulty getting back into working order without state support while having debts that swelled during this period.
At the start of the year, the Banque de France had already estimated that 4.5% to 6% of loans guaranteed by the State (PGE) would struggle or would never be repaid.
Yesterday on RTL, the governor of France, François Villeroy de Galhau warned the second half into which we are entering, that is to say the end of the crisis, would be at least as important for the French economy.
Against the backdrop, several questions.
In addition to the revival of household consumption which remains essential for growth, politicians will have to decide on the policy of whatever the cost and until when this support must be maintained, knowing that some companies are already due. circumstances necessarily condemned to disappear?
As the presidential elections approach in 2022, it is not certain that Emmanuel Macron cuts the taps on aid to companies at the risk of seeing many social plans.
