Ana Clara Pedotti
04/27/2021 6:01 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 04/27/2021 6:01 AM
After the
dollar soaring
in its parallel prices in recent days, the eyes of analysts in the City are on the
evolution of the exchange rate gap
, which, after having reached a minimum last month, is overheating again. And, while the Government has room to prevent the difference between the exchange and official rates from widening again to the highs seen during 2020, a jump in the gap could mean a greater distortion in the economy's numbers.
The gap between the blue and the official was again 70% this Monday.
Although the Government has no elements to intervene in this market, it can do so in the financial market, where it controls the evolution of parallel dollars through the sale of bonds. This Monday, both the price of the MEP dollar and that of cash with liquid rose again and the gap between the latter and the official one is already 66.7%,
"With a dual exchange rate scheme,
the gap is the closest we have to the free exchange rate.
And with it, the closest thermometer that reflects the operation of a series of basic equilibria in the economy. Among others, the external ", explained Francisco Mattig, from Consultatio. "Beyond the economic incentives to maintain the gap in stable terms, the government pursues a
political objective:
a
high gap signals a lack of leadership
and that is something that the government does not want to allow itself in an election year," he added.
The director of Quinto Inversiones, Paula Bujía, agreed: "Guzmán aims to keep the price of
cash with liquid below $ 155 and
thus prevent, even with a lower rate of devaluation of the official, that the gap shoots up like last year At least until the elections, "he said.
The Central Bank improved its performance to face these devaluation pressures in the last two months, due to a
higher sale of dollars from the field.
But the gap also works at this point as a disincentive for exporters
, so keep it
at bay is vital to the exchange rate
dynamics of those months can be
extended at least until October.
Now, the eyes of analysts are on the impact that the new restrictions on activity may have due to the second wave of the coronavirus.
A return to phase 1, although ruled out in the scenarios of most economists, may mean a greater rebound in the gap.
"Our exercises indicate that the
Government could have the capacity to reach October with a level of gap similar to the current level
, as long as the trajectories of fiscal deficit and its monetization do not accelerate," said Mattig.
"The BCRA could reach October with net reserves US $ 1,000 M lower than the current ones, but being able to more than double the intervention in gap," he added.
His colleague, Martín Vauthier, from EcoGo, agreed: "It all adds up. In a context where
country risk remains high
, where there is a very significant exchange rate pressure that can be seen in the gap, beyond the Central Bank being rebuilding its net reserves, with a very deteriorated BCRA balance sheet, after the monetary financing of last year's fiscal deficit. Everything can contribute to the uncertainty that makes savers turn to the dollar. "
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