Daniel Fernandez Canedo
04/27/2021 7:36 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 04/27/2021 8:18 PM
The blue dollar
touched $ 159, rising 11.2% in one week
and awakened the situation of exchange rate placidity
in which it came from the beginning of the year.
The movement of the parallel dollar shakes the waters despite being well below the $ 195 of October 23 of last year and that most analysts bet on a Central Bank
with margin to control
any possible overflow of the market.
The
high price of
soybeans and corn
in the international market, around US $ 560 per ton the first, added about
US $ 2 billion
in recent weeks to the value of this year's harvest.
The Central Bank increased net reserves by US $ 1.75 billion between March 1 and April 16, showing that
the field dollars are flowing in.
Although nothing is written, the high price of soybeans in the heat of increased purchases from China puts producers and exporters on alert.
They are suspicious of the government's temptation to raise retentions and more in times of pandemic and on the verge of deciding
restrictions on circulation
that would affect economic activity.
One of the questions to be asked is
why the blue will have woken up
if the income of dollars from exporters is fluid and the Central Bank is experiencing the golden quarter in terms of currency settlement.
The decision of the
investment funds Templeton and Pimco
to sell Argentine bonds for more than US $ 600 million and buy the currencies to deposit them abroad
moved the market.
The blue dollar rose 11.2% in one week, a warning sign.
Photo EFE
The departure of great players always
leads to think that they know something that the rest do not know
and turn on the warning lights.
The idea that the government
will not reach a solid agreement
with the International Monetary Fund in the three years remaining in its mandate finds few official arguments to refute it.
Inside and outside the Government, it is also accepted that the US $ 9,000 / 10,000 million of additional income from this agricultural season will have as its main destination to
consolidate the exchange rate
rather than loosen it.
Keeping the dollar
steady
is
an important asset in the attempt to somewhat stabilize prices
and even more so when the idea grows that the main objective of the ruling party is to
win the
year-end
elections
.
The government took note of people's concern about inflation.
The 4.8% increase in the cost of living in March was a blow to the expectations of families who now return to face the specter of restrictions to go to work.
That jump in inflation had already led to
Martín Guzmán to announce that he will delay the price of the dollar in an attempt to mitigate the rise in food, but the path traveled by the INDEC indexes ended
with the official objective
that this year wages could beat inflation.
The original government scheme was an inflation of 29%, with the dollar rising 24% until December and with a 30% rise in wages pointing to some recovery in consumption.
One problem is that the goal of 29% increase in the cost of living included in the National Budget
collapses shortly after setting sail
(inflation for the first four months would already be around 16%) and the possibility of
a real increase in the population's income is in a flimsy situation.
In Argentina the
wage bill
is determined by about 30 million people who receive income.
In it, 19 million are employed (formal, informal, monotax employees, etc.) and there are 11 million people among retirees, pensioners and beneficiaries of social plans.
The increase for retirees of 8.07% for May, June and July runs behind inflation
, which was already 13% in the first quarter, and that is why the Government gave a bonus of $ 1,500 for those who receive the minimum.
Without this bonus, which they would collect in April and May, there would be about 3.5 million retirees, who are those with the highest salaries, who
would lose in the face of the rise in the cost of living,
with which they can hardly contribute to improving consumption .
The populous trade union, led by Armando Cavalieri, closed a 32% parity.
Photo Marcelo Carroll
The parity companies, for their part, round up increases of 30% (Commerce closed at 32%), compared to the inflation forecasts of economists above 40%.
On that side, it does not seem that the
demand
can "pull" much and even more in the face of the panorama presented by the pandemic, which would lead families to be extremely prudent in spending.
The financial side of this reality is that
part of the savings is turned over to bonds or deposits indexed by UVA
(retail inflation) in an attempt to protect the pesos from inflation.
And that
part of the income from soybeans goes to the blue dollar
in the understanding that financial stabilization has an
electoral sense
for the Government
and, therefore, a portion of the dollars that come in through exports
go out of
distrust
.
And nobody wants to talk about it much.
Finally, and to look the other way, the Central Bank, which already accumulates many
pesos
by placing liquidity bills in the banks (before the Leliqs were questioned),
is forced to keep the rate low
to avoid the disbursement of another mountain pesos for interest.
With high inflation, a low interest rate scheme for deposits in pesos, and the promise of an exchange delay, stability problems are always faced.
And blue is usually a wake-up call.
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