Natacha Esquivel
04/29/2021 1:56 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 04/29/2021 1:56 PM
Between now and the elections, economists agree that inflation - which will resist going down -
will rise more than the interest rate and the dollar
.
What happens after the elections
is anyone's guess
.
If the government is victorious or if it loses,
will it have more or less room to accelerate a devaluation
of the peso?
Will an agreement with the IMF after the elections finally clear the picture so
that Argentina can take on debt
at a reasonable price?
Will the
high price of soy continue to accompany the Government
?
At the international level, they estimate that if the United States raises the rate it is very likely
that the rally that soybeans
and grains are experiencing - and that ensures more dollars for the country -
will stop.
"We are reaching a ceiling in
agricultural
commodities
," says Gustavo Neffa,
Research for Traders
, in a virtual meeting coordinated by Quinquela Asset Management. When the United States decides to raise the rate (which could happen in 2023), the dollar will rise internationally, and oil and raw materials will surely fall. "So you have to be careful.
We must take advantage of this rally because it may end in 2022
. We do not see an
eternal
bull cycle of
commodities
”, he says.
According to
Adrián Rozanski
, from
1816
, “as long as we have strong Covid it is difficult to see a clear horizon of Argentina, because
the Government is concerned about the day-to-day
.
The discussion with the IMF is an opportunity to think about the medium term ”.
Despite the fact that the country restructured the debt with high acceptance, the analyst says that “it did not work if one takes into account that we
did not regain access to credit
.
The bondholders give us 3 or 4 years of grace, but they already know that
we are not going to use them to do our homework
.
The market perception is that
in 3 or 4 years we will be doing a debt restructuring again
”.
Argentina's bond yield of 20% is almost unmatched in the world.
While the titles of Chile and Uruguay yield 2% or those of Peru and Mexico 3%, Ecuador –which three months ago had a country risk similar to that of Argentina- today after the elections is in the area of 9%.
Gustavo Neffa, from Research for Traders.
“You look at
countries comparable to Argentina, such as Turkey, Ukraine, Nigeria and they yield 6.5%.
There are no countries that perform like Argentina.
Sri Lanka yields 20% and then there are the extremes of Venezuela and Lebanon ”, Rozanski lists.
In this context, an agreement with the Fund could be a turning point.
But not.
For the 1816 specialist,
it is not enough to keep investors coming back
.
“
The market is very frustrated
with what happened in recent years, where everyone lost a lot of money.
It is going to take a long time to regain investor confidence.
Argentina's debt is not ridiculously high, but there is an issue of mistrust.
We have a lot of debt with non-residents, a lot of
senior
debt
(with the IMF, which is a privileged creditor) and a lot of debt in dollars.
That combination makes it difficult to recover the bonds
. "
Federico Furiase
, from
EcoGo
, agrees that
there is no "catalyst"
in the short term.
A fact, such as the debt swap at the time, that can change the mood of the market.
Federico Furiase, from EcoGo.
Photo: Luciano Thieberger.
The economist defines the current panorama as follows: "There is macroeconomic uncertainty with a Central Bank with little gasoline in reserves, an inertial fiscal deficit that is financed with issuance because we do not have access to debt and a local market with limits to absorb the deficit."
To this he adds the electoral year with the dollar and tariffs depressed to contain inflation, with health risk and without an agreement with the IMF.
And a world that does not want to add Argentine risk.
According to his point of view, "the market recognizes that, with this macro situation, the
Government can reach the elections without a bad result
and this is being internalized in dollar bonds."
After the elections, the Guzmán plan may return and the agreement with the IMF may be closed, or there may be a radicalized policy, it is not known.
"
Win or lose, the government will not have incentives to maintain the same current rate of devaluation
,
"
says Neffa.
The Central Bank gains room for maneuver to keep the official dollar quiet until the elections, with a soybean at $ 560 a ton that generates an additional US $ 5 billion of income for the country, the IMF SDRs that will enter by the end of the year and could solve the payment with the organism and the Wealth tax mattress.
“But inflation is not going to drop quickly and it is going to beat the interest rate and the official dollar.
After June, the BCRA will surely have to use the dollars it is raising now
to take pressure off the exchange gap (between the official and the blue).
But
there is risk
,
a scare in the gap cannot be ruled out
, ”warns Furiase.
The economist believes that any tension can quickly
dry up the supply of dollars and cause the gap to jump,
leaving inflation and the rate behind.
With this scenario, analysts suggest investing in CER bonds (tied to inflation) or dollar linked, to hedge against a possible post-election devaluation.
But all in the short term.
NE
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