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Cámpora wants the pesos of Martín Guzmán and complicates the progress of the economic plan

2021-05-06T01:31:57.652Z

With the pulse of soybeans and an adjustment in social spending, the Government is going to the elections stepping on tariffs and increasing subsidies. Four months later, the Budget is blurred.



Ezequiel Burgo

05/05/2021 12:21 AM

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

Updated 05/05/2021 12:21 AM

In four months, the

Budget

that Martín Guzmán thought for 2021

no longer exists

.

Inflation will not be 29%, soybeans are not worth US $ 350 and social, union and party pressures in the face of the elections are greater than those predicted by the minister.

On the one hand, Guzmán has more

collection

, in part this is thanks to accelerating inflation.

Tax revenues (grew 105% annually in April) 'fly' hand in hand with the rise in prices, the recovery of activity and the higher price of grains.

On the

spending

side

, the minister plays follow-on and lets

pensions and salaries rise less than inflation

: in the first 3 months social benefits increased only 32.4%.

A full-fledged fit.

The combination of more collection and a mooring expense opens space for

subsidies to

enter the diagonal: they rise to 70% per year.

And there is no IFE or ATP.

What happens then?

Guzmán forecast $ 627 billion (1.7% of GDP) for subsidies this year.

But economists who are experts in fiscal and energy issues believe that the figure will be higher because the rate increases will not be what the minister had planned to do (between 30% and 40%).

"If the increases are what Federico Basualdo and Federico Bernal say, the subsidies soar to $ 905,000 million,"

says Alejandro Einstoss, an economist at the UBA and the Mosconi Argentine Institute of Energy.

For Ricardo Delgado, director of the consulting firm Analytica, if the discussion refers only to the issue of light that Basualdo raised,

"a figure ranging between $ 54,421 million and $ 38,872 million of extra subsidies to what Guzmán budgeted is covered

.

"

None of these figures is relevant from a macroeconomic point of view.

But they do give oxygen to La Cámpora in the face of the

elections

when inflation does not give way.

Even subsidies could go up higher.

Nicolás Gadano, economist and expert in energy and public finance, warns of this.

"If the

dollar

moves, everything changes there

.

"

Subsidies increase at the rate of the exchange rate.

There is more to the background fight.

Guzmán, for a few months and privately, admits that delaying corrections in the energy sector is

risky

for those who have to assume those adjustments in the future.

And it could be

the ruling party itself (that is, him)

.

A ball of delays in rates is formed at the cost of the State increasingly financing the energy consumption of homes as happened before with Kirchnerism.

Second, the minister says that if the sector does not invest and

fuel

imports

increase

, there will be fewer

dollars

to repay the debt in the coming years and finance the recovery.

"Guzmán's budget had several blows and one of them will be that the subsidies will not grow in terms of GDP,"

says Gabriel Caamaño, director of the consulting firm Ledesma.

“But the fiscal goal is still achievable because fiscal aid for the pandemic is not much and soy increased. We will have to see in May ”

.

Marina Dal Poggetto, director of Eco Go, also thinks that the Guzmán-Basualdo affair

“is absurd in fiscal terms, it is not relevant. But yes in political terms and in the face of the discussion with the IMF ”

. The

organization

does not welcome dissent within the government on the direction of specific issues on spending on subsidies. He also closely follows the intervention of the governor,

Axel Kicillof

, on issues on Guzmán's agenda. Kicillof praised Basualdo.

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2021-05-06

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