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Between the certainties of the 'sojazo' and the doubts about Martín Guzmán

2021-05-10T22:25:50.110Z

Soybeans at US $ 584 per ton generate an unthinkable situation at the Central Bank. The Minister of Economy protects his position but names of possible replacements circulate



Daniel Fernandez Canedo

05/08/2021 12:44

  • Clarín.com

  • Economy

Updated 05/08/2021 12:44 PM

"The most relevant data is the historical record

of foreign exchange income for US $ 9,755 million

in the first four months, surpassing the previous maximum mark of the same period of 2016 by US $ 1,707 million."

The text corresponds to the May report of CIARA (Chamber of the Oil Industry of the Argentine Republic) which, in a few words, gives an account of the result of the

"sojazo"

that benefits Argentina as a consequence of the sharp rise in the prices of grains, especially soybeans and corn in the international market.

For the Government, there are two clearly beneficial effects and another, the rise in

domestic food prices

, which it cannot find a way to resolve without resorting to policies already adopted and which have proven to be inefficient.

Among the effects in favor, without a doubt, are the increase in the Central Bank's reserves that allows it, among other things, to delay the price of the official dollar against inflation (in the month it rises 1.7% compared to an increase in the cost of living that would be around 4%) and the strengthening of tax collection.

In April,

collection rose 42.6%

in real terms (April 2020 was the full quarantine with a vertical drop in activity) and recovered the levels prior to the pandemic.

This rebound basically responded to a 97% rise in the contribution of withholdings to exports, leveraged by the better prices of grains and the "cash" effect that represented the $ 103,000 million of the tax on large fortunes.

Two coffers were filled in the midst of the pandemic, but the rise in inflation continues to be, together with the shortage of vaccines against

COVID-19,

the growing concern of the population.

The official strategy on the matter is defined: the greater inflow of dollars will

strengthen the Central's reserves and the exchange rate stock,

even though that keeps the exchange gap at a high level (it is at 60%).

Everything is to sustain financial stability with a view to the end of the year election.

Meanwhile, the policy against inflation will continue to blame businessmen and merchants for the remarks without taking into account the expectation that the entire defensive scheme rests on soy dollars and those that may come from the capitalization of the International Monetary Fund.

It would be about US $ 4.5 billion that would enter in August.

The economist Carlos Melconian charts the moment saying that Martín Guzmán lost an additional US $ 10 billion to put together a soccer team and he decided to buy four goalkeepers and the other seven defenders.

The future is not clear, in addition, due to the delicate situation that the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, is going through.

President Alberto Fernández tries to strengthen him after his failed attack against the Undersecretary of Energy,

Federico Basualdo

(responds to Cámpora), but rumors about his future outside the Government grew before the weekend.

The names of

Mercedes Marcó del Pont

(head of the AFIP and the president's most trusted),

Paula Español

(Secretary of Internal Trade, close to the vice president) and

Augusto Costa

(Minister of Production of Governor Axel Kicillof) continue to circulate as possible replacements for a Martín Guzmán who continues to show signs of not wanting to leave his post.

A clear indicator of this is not only his participation in the mission to Italy and France to continue the negotiations aimed at refinancing the US $ 2.4 billion that are due with the Paris Club, but also because of his sudden Peronist vocation.

The tweet of the minister for the 102 years of the birth of Evita that "he will live forever in the heart of the Argentine people" was read, inside and outside the Government, as that now Guzmán does not care so much that a subordinate puts a "ceiling on him "of a 9% increase in the electricity rate when he wanted a 15% to be able to lower subsidies somewhat after two years of freezing.

There are officials in the economic area and in the Casa Rosada who recognize that the spectacular rise in soybeans and the extraordinary dollars that will come from the IMF are true "manna" to be able to transit the powerful second wave of COVID. Will it be enough for Martín Guzmán to withstand friendly fire?

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2021-05-10

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