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The figure behind the La Cámpora-Martín Guzmán fight: $ 370,000 million


The minister collects more for soybeans and intends to pay less in subsidies. A combination that Kirchnerism rejects in an electoral year.

Ezequiel Burgo

05/15/2021 21:06

  • Clarí

  • Economy

Updated 05/15/2021 9:06 PM

The fight between

La Cámpora


Martín Guzmán

is for

more than US $ 10,000 million

. Inside there are

dollars, pesos, reserves, income and expenses of the State

. Everything. But within that figure (billionaire in pesos) there are some money pots that touch electrical nerves such as those in the




and the metropolitan middle class with


. La Cámpora is not encouraged to touch that circuit breaker for fear of receiving a spark.

The equation is simple.

For the most expensive soybeans, Guzmán would raise this year an extra $ 380,000 million (almost U $ S 3,800 million if it is calculated at the official dollar).

That figure is practically the amount that La Cámpora is willing to increase subsidies considering that the only confirmed increase is 9% for electricity for May while the increase in gas remains pending.

What does Guzmán intend?

First, keep the extra $ 380 billion from soybeans.

And then 'not deliver' that equal amount of pesos in subsidies


The minister argued that doing the latter would benefit the rich. And it's true. According to data from the EPH and Cedlas, a study center at the University of La Plata that is an expert on issues of inequality and poverty, energy subsidies benefit the portion of the population with the highest incomes. But what Guzmán wants is the money from soybeans and not pay more subsidies to lower the deficit further and be in better conditions to negotiate with the IMF. The tighter you adjust now, the more you have to prove to Kristalina Georgieva that you started doing your dirty work. The problem is that

La Cámpora does not want that course or Guzmán


Based on a study carried out by the consulting firm Delphos on the changes in income and expenses in the Budget, it is possible to consider what the balance of political forces is like within the Frente de Todos.

And see that uncoordination is a silver issue.

The puzzle would look like this:


The Cámpora

put more pesos in the Treasury for the collection of the

tax on large fortunes


They are about $ 223,000 million (0.5% of GDP), of which around $ 103,000 million entered in April and the rest in 5 fixed installments close to $ 25,000 million per month.

"This gives the government a financial air, which could even show a slight

primary surplus in April,


says the Delphos work.


Sergio Massa

promoted a package of measures to alleviate the situation of the middle class. It is to the detriment of Guzmán and aspires to draw votes: the

reduction of Earnings to individuals

and the exemption of the payment of employer contributions until the end of the year to the sectors most affected by the Covid would reduce income by $ 60,000 million. Although in truth the figure could be five times more than the Congressional Budget Office says (a fiscal cost of $ 320,000 million). The measure has not yet been regulated or impacted on the pockets of workers. When that happens, Guzmán will lose more revenue.


Guzmán and Pesce

cushion the pressures of La Cámpora with the increase in the collection of

withholdings on exports

, derived from the high prices of commodities. In the first quarter, revenues were 190% more than in the first quarter of 2020. The 2021 Budget contemplated a nominal growth of export duties of 58% per year

. "In this way, the increase with respect to the 2021 Budget would be around an additional $ 380,000,"

says Delphos.

- Guzmán has another trick up his sleeve. If prices rise more, the State collects more, that is, if


is higher, so is the collection. These revenues could contribute about $ 80,000 million and offset the loss of about $ 55,000 million due to the Country tax (it increased 15% in the first four months when an 89% increase in the Budget was foreseen due to the fall in trips abroad)

- Finally, the



Here only

La Cámpora



The subsidies would grow from 2.7% to 3.6% of GDP, which represents around $ 370,000 million additional

to what was budgeted, Delphos calculated.

If, on top, it is taken into account that retirements will pick up speed in May with extraordinary bonuses and the 12.12% quarterly mobility increase arranged in June, spending will rise.

What does this whole list of income and expenses mean?

That the Government will end up making an



The primary deficit would be the one budgeted (4.2% of GDP) according to Delphos, lower than last year (6.5%).

But the data to take into account is that if La Cámpora had allowed Guzmán to follow the trajectory of freezing subsidies and gathering the highest revenue from soy and inflation,

the fiscal deficit would have been 3% of GDP instead of 4.2

%. Even according to IARAF calculations of 2.7% of GDP. Back, a level that would have left Guzmán better off in the face of a negotiation with the IMF and that the harshest Kirchnerism today reproaches him.

La Cámpora, in addition to thinking about Guzmán's pesos, also wants the

US $ 4,400 million that the IMF will turn Pesce



(US $ 4,400 million) in a few months.

The Minister of Economy intends to use those currencies to pay the two maturities to the body this year for some US $ 3,822 million in total.

The Field to spend in the campaign.

In short


The numbers for the highest subsidies, the highest soybean collection and the IMF dollars, add up to more than US $ 10 billion and that is at stake with the La Cámpora-Guzmán fight.

But the high tension cable is the

$ 370,000 million of subsidies


It will be necessary to see who puts his fingers there.

Source: clarin

All business articles on 2021-05-17

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