Paula Lugones
05/25/2021 3:38 PM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 05/25/2021 3:38 PM
The proclamation launched on Tuesday by a group of personalities identified with the harshest Kirchnerism, in which they ask President Alberto Fernández to suspend debt payments due to the pandemic and a series of conditions to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund,
had an impact in Washington.
Before a
Clarín
query
on the subject,
the Fund did not want to comment on the matter
. But experts who closely follow the Argentine negotiations with the IMF in Washington told this correspondent that the document
"undermines the credibility"
of a commitment that the Government can sign and that it is a
"continuation of the grinding"
that a Kirchner sector makes Minister
Martín Guzmán
, in charge of negotiations with the organization. It further shows that any agreement that can be reached can be
"annulled" by "internal actions of Christianity."
A group of
politicians, actors and journalists
published a "Proclamation of May 25" on Tuesday to tell Alberto Fernández how to negotiate with the IMF. Calls for the suspension of payments for capital and interest to the body and the Paris Club due to the pandemic; that maturities are renegotiated and the interest surcharge be lowered; support the investigation of officials for the credit granted in 2018 and capital flight, among other things.
The letter comes at a delicate moment for the negotiation of the debt
because next
week there is a maturity
with the Paris Club and the European entity demands to postpone it that Argentina show the endorsement of a plan with the Fund. As that agreement in Washington seems to be postponed until after the elections, the Fernández government seeks a gesture from the body that will serve as a green light for the Paris Club. Although a few days ago the president had said that he does not want a default and that he would like to agree soon with the Fund, the Proclamation of May 25 may complicate this perspective.
"It is a statement that ignores the costs that
default
with the world would have and that lays bare the misunderstandings within the government's own political space,"
Héctor Torres,
former Argentine director before the Fund
, told
Clarín
.
The proclamation, he added, "
clearly undermines the credibility of any compromise that the government may make
with public creditors and indicates the difficulties that an agreement with the IMF would have in receiving legislative approval."
Torres warns that this document "may have concrete repercussions: there is no border between foreign and domestic policy, even less so when the government's own political space asks the State to
ignore the legitimacy of the debt
contracted by a previous government." .
The expert believes that the proclamation may complicate support from the Fund for the current Argentine negotiations with the Paris Club.
“Helping, it sure doesn't help.
Perhaps the most serious thing is to show that in Argentina, any commitment made by one government could be unknown to the next.
Even when they are legitimately elected governments ”.
For
Gabriel Lopetegui
, former Argentine director before the IMF, “this message is more for the President than for the Fund. The outlook is complicated because inflation does not drop, there is a closure of everything that will affect the fiscal accounts and clearly there is a fight that continues.
I believe that it is a continuation of the grinding
that has been done to Minister Martín Guzmán and that politically complicates the negotiations ”.
Lopetegui told
Clarín
that “at the Fund they already know that the coalition does not basically agree on an economic plan.
This is one more example of that disagreement, but the truth is that I do not think that the perception that already exists will change much because of that statement:
that Argentina is in a politically very difficult situation to agree, and less so now.
I don't think anyone imagines that there is going to be a program with the Fund before the elections because it should have already happened ”.
Claudio Loser,
former director for the Western Hemisphere of the Fund, said that "evidently, the proclamation seeks to
put limits on the ability of the Government to find a negotiated and reasonable solution
with who is its main creditor."
He added that "clearly this shows a fissure and the danger that if the government team reaches an agreement with the IMF staff,
the compromise reached may be annulled, by internal actions of" Christianity "
. In practical terms, the most probable thing is that this proclamation will allow the signatories to protect their official credentials, when an agreement is reached ”.
“If, on the other hand, the Government considers that these are its instructions, it is almost certain that an agreement will not be reached, the country will enter into arrears with the IMF and this will lead to a suspension of negotiations, and eventual inability to borrow. This is an issue that may take a few months, but beyond the technical negotiation, there will be less sympathy for Argentina on the part of other member countries, if there is not a position of good faith in the negotiation. In short,
a delicate but manageable situation, if this ad is just rhetorical. But it doesn't help, ”he
pointed out.
The document, which has 10 pages and was advanced this Tuesday by
Clarín,
was promoted by Deputy Fernanda Vallejos, an economist who is the
head of the Finance committee of the lower house
and one of the vice spokespersons on negotiations with the IMF. It has the signatures of personalities such as former Supreme Court judge Eugenio Zaffaroni; the deputy general secretary of Truckers Pablo Moyano; the secretary general of the CGT Héctor Daer; the journalist Víctor Hugo Morales; the vice president of the UIA Guillermo Moretti; the former Minister of Economy Felisa Miceli; former Vice President Amado Boudou; the governors of Tierra del Fuego Gustavo Melella and of Formosa Gildo Insfrán, among others.
"Our country is in a situation of 'state of necessity' that prevents it from facing the debt commitments contracted, especially with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other organizations," he says.
And he proposes to the president seven basic points for negotiation: 1) "Promote the suspension of payments for principal and interest with the IMF and the Paris Club, while the health emergency extends."
2) "Reschedule maturities with all international financial organizations with terms according to the true possibilities of payment in the country."
3) "Renegotiate the decrease in interest, charges and commissions provided for in the current agreements."
4) "Use the quota that would correspond to Argentina (estimated at approximately 4,350 million dollars), of the expected issuance of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the IMF of a total of USD 650,000 million, to strengthen the international reserves of the BCRA, easing the restrictions that limit attention to the serious problems derived from the Covid-19 pandemic and favoring health, education, housing, work, poverty reduction and indigence, among others, and not paying the debt for capital, interest or expenses ".
5) "Support the criminal complaint initiated by the National Government against the acting officials of the previous government in obtaining the 'stand by' loan with the IMF".
6) "Investigate the destination of the funds from said loan to identify those responsible for the flight of capital, evidenced by the investigation of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic."
7) "Demand the IMF to provide all the support to continue with the investigations, determine and differentiate legitimate debt from illegitimate and, likewise, collaborate in finding the funds fled from the country."
Washington. Correspondent
Look also
"Proclamation of May 25": politicians, actors and journalists K tell Alberto Fernández how to negotiate with the IMF
Cristina Kirchner's message for May 25 with a memory of Néstor Kirchner
