The number turns heads.
The amount of France's budget deficit (excluding social security and local authorities) expected in 2021 should reach “around 220 billion euros”.
The Minister for Public Accounts, Olivier Dussopt, chose this sunny Saturday morning to announce the bad news.
The public slate has worsened by nearly 47 billion euros more than what had been budgeted for this year (173.3 billion).
"It's an estimate, at this stage," insists at Bercy.
What shatter all records.
The state deficit had already more than doubled in 2020, reaching 178.2 billion euros.
“The highest in our contemporary history”, exclaimed last January the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, during a hearing at the National Assembly.
New business support systems presented in June
“This is the consequence of the support measures that we continue to take to best support the recovery,” pleads Minister Dussopt.
The last confinement - which did not have the name -, with its consequences on economic sectors still in slow motion or at a standstill such as hotels and restaurants in particular, obviously weighed.
The state has decided to commit € 15.5 billion in additional emergency measures.
Amounts "which will be used in particular to finance partial activity and targeted aid for companies in difficulty," had detailed Olivier Dussopt and Bruno Le Maire last week.
See alsoPIB, consumption, unemployment: three lockdowns ... and as many roller coasters for the French economy
To this, "we must add 7.2 billion euros in advance on emergency measures," Bercy added.
New aid measures for companies in very great difficulty or tax relief for companies must also be presented on June 2 on the occasion of the presentation of an amending finance bill (PLFR).
Growth slipped in the first quarter
But the bill for the exit from Covid-19 year 2 and the “whatever it takes”, President Macron's crisis doctrine to protect the economy, do not explain everything.
The other blow to the accounts of the State is growth.
She unscrewed in the first quarter in France.
Bercy was counting on an increase in gross domestic product of 0.4% according to a first assessment.
Patatras, the restart of the economic engine finally derailed, with a decline in GDP of
0.1% according to INSEE, weighed down in particular by the construction sector much less dynamic than expected.
"The result is more spending and less income in the state coffers," observes the Ministry of Public Accounts.
Has the government sinned by too much enthusiasm in announcing ten days ago "a notable rebound in growth" this year?
This is what economist Eric Heyer of the OFCE believes, who on the contrary predicts a "very strong recession" in 2021. The government is staying the course, optimistic.
It is counting on a strong acceleration in activity in the second half of the year, and maintains its growth objective at 5% for 2021.
"We will have to get out of whatever it costs"
Who will repay this colossal debt? The question regularly returns to anguish the French, without ever obtaining a clear answer. The government assures that the new spending will be financed by the loan. "France is solid on the markets, we have shown that we are good managers", affirm the services of Olivier Dussopt. However, interest rates have risen for two weeks, which will increase the bill. "We will have to get out of
whatever it costs
, we will gradually remove the aid," we continue to Bercy.
What other levers does the executive then plan to activate? Hands off taxes, the government has promised, they will not increase. Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of the Economy who watches with fear the debt soar, has a triptych in mind: "strong growth, control of public spending over five years, and the pursuit of structural reforms, such as that of unemployment insurance, but also that of pensions when the time comes, ”he said. The fate of the unemployment insurance reform - scheduled for July 1 - is now in the hands of the Council of State, which has been seized of appeals by seven unions. As for the pension reform, suspended in March 2020, will it be relaunched in 2021 or will it appear in the program of the 2022 presidential election? Emmanuel Macron must decide.
