Ezequiel Burgo
05/30/2021 12:00 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 05/30/2021 12:00 AM
Tomorrow is the deadline to
pay
the
Paris Club
.
And Argentina will not make the
turn
as confirmed by official sources.
In this way, the authorities will use an extra period of 60 days from 0 o'clock this Tuesday to negotiate its cancellation.
It will only be entered into
default
if the time expires and the commitment has not yet been honored.
In the forms of the Ministry of Finance posted on the website of the Ministry of Economy, it appears that the amount to be paid is US $ 2,248 million in
capital
and US $ 237 million in
interest
.
In total US $ 2.485 million.
What will be relevant in those
60 days
to come?
"Two issues,"
lists an official source familiar with the negotiations.
“First, the
political
discussions
at the leading level.
Second, the technical talks between the Economy and the IMF ”.
Argentina will seek from the Paris Club a permit that extends the term to
a period greater than 60 days to continue without paying and avoid the cost of declaring the default
. President Alberto Fernández has already requested this
waiver
from his European counterparts and Angela Merkel herself in recent days. The Europeans' response was unequivocal:
only if the country signs an agreement with the IMF
. But, it is known, Fernández faces an obstacle with this solution: there are leaders of the ruling party who are against signing a program with the Monetary Fund, including Axel Kicillof.
Argentina and the IMF will
not sign a formal program in the next 60 days
.
Not at least one like the one that Martín Guzmán requested from Kristalina Georgieva last October, an
understanding of Extended Facilities to 10 years
to repay what is owed to the IMF.
What could happen then?
What would prevent Argentina from going into default with the Paris Club on July 31 if there is no time to calibrate a program with all that this means (setting guidelines for increasing the
dollar, rates, reserves and fiscal balance
with everything What does this mean inside Kirchnerism, in addition to the reforms that are needed to achieve these results)?
The only tool available to close that gap is in the hands of
politics
, they coincide inside and outside the Government. In economics, there is talk of an
“understanding”
, an
“umbrella”
, something that means a
'joint declaration of good faith'
between the country and the organization. Some of this could be explored in a visit to the country in a few weeks by German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas.
Germany
and
Japan
are the main Argentine creditors in the Paris Club.
Sources that follow the Argentina-IMF relationship closely, say that the organization does not give negotiation status to the current work agenda with the Ministry of Economy.
They point out that the IMF spokesman himself, Gerry Rice, refers to this when he speaks of
"talks"
and not
"negotiations"
in his lectures
.
A subtle difference in words but one that is key at this stage
.
The Ministry of Economy itself admits that the 60-day period that opens will be characterized as a "discussion of surgeons with words and a minuet of gestures."
From Cristina to Alberto, how the current debt was arrived at
Argentina defeated the Club in December 2001. In between, it paid the IMF and private bondholders.
But it took time to do it with the countries.
- In September 2008
Cristina Kirchner
signed a decree to pay the debt.
It was $ 6,706 million back then.
The reserves were to be used but finally the idea did not prosper.
- A year later
Amado Boudou
began negotiations with the IMF to return to the credit markets, to borrow and not to use the reserves.
-Finally Kirchnerism did not go to the IMF.
But he used the reserves, paid the pending judgments at ICSID and agreed with the Paris Club to cancel the debt in five years.
Only now the debt had grown, it
had gone from US $ 6,706 million to US $ 9,690 million
.
-
Cristina Kirchner paid US $ 1,146 million
to the Paris Club for what she restructured.
Mauricio Macri US $ 6,590 million
.
These are figures that the economist Fernando Marull reconstructed based on the Economy data.
-
Alberto Fernández
inherited the last tranche of the quota, US $ 1,935.
It did not pay in May 2020 and not now.
Debt increased to US $ 2.4 billion due to accrued interest.
- The amount of the obligations could now grow even more.
If Argentina enters into default on July 31, to the US $ 2,400 million it will be necessary to add
some US $ 2,000 million in concept of punitive interest
according to an estimate of the consultancy pxq.
What is the Paris Club and how does it relate to the IMF
The Paris Club was born in a negotiation made by the Argentine Ministry of Economy in Paris in 1956. Just that year Argentina joined the IMF.
As part of that process, the country also decided to order a series of debts with European countries that it had accumulated since the 1930s.
Those negotiations were held at the French Ministry of the Economy.
They were commercial debts and with companies.
At that time, the countries each still had their own currency and there were still exchange controls.
The IMF acted as a kind of arbiter through its monitoring.
Today the Paris Club uses Article IV of the Fund to examine whether or not a country can pay its debts.
