Juan Manuel Barca
05/30/2021 21:38
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 05/30/2021 9:38 PM
The Minister of Economy will face
60 days of high voltage
starting this week
.
In that period, it will try to reach an agreement with the IMF
to avoid default with the Paris Club
.
Argentina had to pay US $ 2.4 billion on Monday, but since that will not happen there will be two months of grace to reach an agreement.
In the Government they de-dramatize the scenario ahead and await a favorable response from the Paris Club, convinced of the "successful" result of the European tour.
"
Tomorrow there are no payments, negotiations continue
and in the period of 60 days at some point the idea is that it comes to fruition," official sources said.
Guzmán has already asked to reschedule payments and reduce rates, without suffering punitive interest payments.
In 2019, a partial disbursement was made, which
triggered a 9% surcharge
.
And in 2020, the entire maturity was postponed.
If payments were to
be
defaulted
, there will also be an
extra penalty of US $ 2,000 million
.
Despite official optimism, the negotiations will not be easy.
Although a visit from him is not expected, because
Guzmán must obtain the approval of the Fund
.
It happens that Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel delegated to Washington the task of evaluating the situation in Argentina.
Thus, the first thing is to pass the Kristalina Georgieva staff exam.
"Argentina has to enter into serious negotiations, not complete them, but negotiate a program with the Fund," said
Claudio Loser
, former director of the IMF for the Western Hemisphere.
In his opinion, it implies
providing a "vision" with numbers and projections
on finances, exchange and monetary policy and a path to reduce the fiscal deficit.
The other requirement, according to Loser, would be
an analysis of the sustainability of the public debt
through which the technicians analyze cash flows, maturities and repayment conditions.
The last exercise was carried out in March 2020 at the request of the Ministry of Economy and there it was warned about the
need to reduce the
total
deficit
to 5% of GDP on average and a maximum of 6%, Guzmán's current goal.
The negotiations with Washington could be reflected in a letter of intent or a statement from the staff.
The Fund will then submit a report to the Paris-based entity
for the board to define.
The talks must have the endorsement of the Minister of Economy amid
open tensions with Kirchnerism
.
After the letter of May 25, a report by the team of deputy K Fernanda Vallejos warned this Sunday that the
facility plan extended to ten years
and an interest rate of 2% per year -which is what is sought to agree with the IMF, plus the debt with bondholders and other organizations, “
make payment impossible
.” According to this calculation, it is US $ 4.8 billion to the Fund in 2021 and US $ 17.8 billion in 2022.
Article IV
also
generates friction
, an audit that all member countries of the organization must comply with, but that Argentina stopped doing it in 2019 when the Stand By agreement for which US $ 44,000 million is owed was interrupted.
Guzmán welcomes those consultations, something that irritates Kirchnerism in an election year.
"There is some indication from members of the Paris Club that
Argentina has to get to work more seriously
with the Fund, not only go through declarative issues, but incorporate some substance
and that begins with the so-called Article IV,
"
said Daniel Marx
, secretary Finance between 2000 and 2001 and debt negotiator between 1988 and 1993.
Argentina is one of the eight countries with a delay of more than 18 months to complete that consultation, along with Venezuela, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea and Burundi.
For now, from the Fund, they sent a signal in the last hours.
"We continue to maintain a close dialogue, but
there are no plans for a mission at this time,
" sources from the agency said.
Look also
Paris Club: tomorrow there will be no payment and the default will be 60 days
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