Ana Clara Pedotti
06/03/2021 18:33
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 06/03/2021 18:34
In recent weeks,
Argentina's financial assets
showed improvements that somewhat surprised analysts in the City.
Without major changes in the local economy in sight and in discount times with the Paris Club to renegotiate the payment of the US $ 2.4 billion that were due at the end of last month, one of the possible reasons could be in the
rebound both to real and financial level of the main commercial partner of the country.
Despite the resurgence of the second wave in
Brazil, its economy is growing more than expected by the market,
at the rate of an appreciation of global commodities and an export boom in the neighboring country.
At the same time,
its stocks and bonds are flying and the real appreciated against the dollar
and managed to reach its highest level in six months.
Will the Argentine economy be able to capitalize on the good humor of the neighborhood?
Greater than expected growth
The Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 1.2% in the first quarter
of 2021, compared to the previous three months, according to data published this Tuesday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This is above what the financial market of the neighboring country had projected, which expected an advance of the economy close to 0.9%.
This correction means that,
just by statistical drag
, the projection of the total growth of the Brazilian economy in 2021
goes from 2% of its GDP to 4.9%
.
Even Banco Itaú, the largest entity in the country, expects the economy to climb more than 5%.
Brazil's economy comes from a 3.8% drop in 2020. This year's rebound would be linked to the fact that, despite the second wave of the covid-19 pandemic, restrictions on activity were lower.
Better trading conditions
The
commodity price boom
drives improvements in the neighboring country. Jorge Vasconcelos, from IERAL explained "35% of Brazil's exports are made up of soybeans, iron, corn and oil, so it is expected that
total sales abroad go from 210 billion dollars in 2020 to 255 billion in 2021.
It should be remembered that in the neighboring country these flows do not pay taxes (“withholdings”), so this phenomenon, in turn, could boost the rate entry to the country of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ".
According to Ecolatina, Brazil's export boom will also improve local export projections.
"During the first year of the coronavirus pandemic, global trade was seriously affected, and
our exports of goods reached minimum values since 2006,
falling 16% compared to 2019," said Joaquin Waldman, of that consultancy.
"However, this year
Brazilian purchases of Argentine products grew 33% in these first 5 months of the year
compared to those of the same period of 2020. This number even grows a lot for the months in which the comparison is made with the older months. restrictions.
In May, the rise was 103
%, "he added.
A rate policy
The Central Bank of Brazil decided to face a
hike in its monetary policy rates
to stop an incipient acceleration in inflation caused by the global commodity price boom that the neighboring country exports.
In early May
for the second time its benchmark Selic rate from 2.75% to 3.5%
.
At that time, the monetary authority announced "In relation to the Brazilian economic activity, recent indicators show a more positive evolution than expected, despite the intensity of the second wave of the pandemic being greater than expected."
Therefore, it
projected a new rise of 0.75% this month,
which contributed to the exchange market of the country to remain stable and the real to appreciate against the dollar.
Bovespa on records
Brazil's
main stock market indicator
operates at a record: in the last three months, the Bovespa shares jumped almost 30%
.
On Wednesday, the last day of operations of this square closed this Thursday for a holiday, it rose 0.89%, to 129,407 points and managed to exceed 129,000 points for the first time.
Although
the "spill" impact for Argentine stocks is limited
, analysts agree that this good humor helps local stock investors.
In addition, it opens a door for them to further diversify their portfolios,
via Cedears: Petrobras shows gains of 51% in the last three months, similar to the increases of Compañía Siderúrgica Nacional, which gains 52% and Embraer, which rises 58%.
"There is a link between what is happening in the Brazilian stock market and the increases in the local market, although it is not the most important of the channels," said Waldam.
"In many emerging markets there are rises: this is pulling domestic assets, although they began to rise from very low values with rumors of an agreement with the Paris Club," he added.
The real is appreciated and helps Guzmán
In the foreign exchange market
, the real continued its bullish streak
: it rose 1.20% to 5.0843 units per dollar, the highest level since December 17 (5.0782 reais).
Now analysts estimate that the Brazilian currency could strengthen to less than 5 reais to the dollar if US employment data released on Friday is weaker than expected.
While Guzmán's plan is to use the exchange rate anchor as a tool to curb inflation in the election year
, the local exchange rate delay would not be affected by the exchange with Brazil.
"Since the pandemic began, the Argentine peso and the Brazilian real seem to move in a coupled fashion," explained Delphos analysts and anticipated: "
While countries like Brazil continue to appreciate their currency, our country could continue on the same path
."
In this sense, Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, from Equilibra, explained: "In a context where the Government has been validating a devaluation below inflation, if the real depreciates the competitiveness gap with Brazil will deepen, which could put pressure on the Local exchange market Now, in some way, although the peso is still behind the real, it maintains the bilateral relationship in the same terms that we have been observing.
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