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Fitter at work: is the crisis over?
Photo: Felix Kästle / dpa
After the corona shock comes the strong recovery: The Bundesbank is now forecasting economic growth of 3.7 percent for 2021.
"The German economy is overcoming the pandemic-related crisis," said Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, explaining the growing confidence.
In December, the Bundesbank economists had predicted growth of 3.0 percent for 2021.
In the meantime, the central bank assumes that the corona pandemic can be "pushed back quickly and sustainably" as the vaccinations progress, and that restrictions for the economy and the population will therefore be "quickly relaxed".
"This summer economic output could reach the pre-crisis level again," said Weidmann.
The Bundesbank has also raised its forecasts for 2022.
Instead of 4.5 percent growth, the economists of the central bank of Europe's larger economy are now predicting an increase of 5.2 percent in the next year.
In 2023, the growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) will therefore weaken, but will still be 1.7 percent.
Last year, the corona pandemic plunged the German economy into the deepest recession since the global financial crisis in 2009.
According to the latest calculation by the Federal Statistical Office, the gross domestic product collapsed by 4.8 percent in 2020.
Now it is not only the Bundesbank that is looking more optimistically into the future: many economists are anticipating a faster recovery.
For example, the forecast of the union-related Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Research (IMK) is even higher than that of the Bundesbank: "We even consider noticeably more than four percent possible for 2021," says Sebastian Dullien, the institute's scientific director.
Dullien believes that the recovery in consumption and exports will take place a little faster than assumed by the Bundesbank.
However, the upswing also has its downsides.
In view of the increasing demand, consumers have to be prepared for significantly higher prices.
Temporarily inflation rates of four percent are possible, said Bundesbank boss Weidmann - and thus confirmed earlier statements.
In the past few months, prices in Germany have already risen sharply.
mic / dpa-afx
