Ana Clara Pedotti
06/28/2021 6:01 AM
Clarín.com
Economy
Updated 06/28/2021 7:13 AM
In a week full of financial news
, the blue dollar set the pulse by jumping $ 5 on Friday and ending at $ 174,
its highest value since the beginning of the year.
While the Government
strives to shield the exchange rate anchor
in the official market, the pressures in parallel can complicate the outlook.
In the City, busy days await, where a
new rise in the blue
sets the pulse.
Just as in the first months of the year a cluster of factors served the Government to
extend the exchange rate summer beyond what the calendar marks
, now there are also a multiplicity of elements that
intervene so that the parallel dollar has awakened.
On the one hand, a change in the international climate and a lesser "tail wind" for the country and, on the other, a superabundance of pesos that coincides with the payment of bonuses and the return of what was withheld in Earnings in the first months
Last week, despite the progress made in the negotiation of the debt announced, two facts drew attention: that
high-ranking officials such
as Martín Guzmán and Santiago Cafiero
ruled out an exchange rate run
in the media and, on the other, the downgrading of Argentina by the MSCI.
Although both analysts and the government itself insist that the free dollar is a marginal market due to its size,
the rise in the blue is worrisome as it becomes a thermometer for the prices
of the economy.
Precisely, the informal sector advanced this year well below other domestic prices: while inflation accumulated a rise of 21.5% in the first five months,
the free dollar barely rose 5.4%
since January.
"Interest rates are very low and in fact
the fixed terms in June lost against inflation
. At this time of the year, the Government is throwing money on the street. And we all have the feeling that they will throw more: and
give them pesos the demand for dollars always increases from an Argentine,
especially if credibility is low, "said economist Andres Borenstein, of Econviews.
Borenstein pointed out that, despite this,
there are reasons to think that the increase could end up limited
: "In the Government they usually find
friendly hands
that sell so that this does not get out of control, much more when we approach the elections," he said.
For Matías Rajnerman, from Ecolatina, the tensions of last week can be replicated from now on: "Likewise, the rise in recent days is just a rebound from the blue
. It is not close to the peaks of almost $ 200 last year
, although , inflation through, that $ 200 does not have the same real value now. It is still very far from last year's levels and I do not think it will recover, "he said.
Rajnerman added: "The
Central Bank accumulated a lot of intervention power
, net reserves grew 80% in the first half of the year and it is likely that it will use it to avoid reaching the elections with a convulsed exchange rate front."
The rise of the blue will also mark the pulse in the
financial dollar market,
where cash with liquidation has already risen this year by 17.6%, also below inflation.
"There are different reasons for the
CCL to also have upward pressure
. We see the Central Bank buying less in the exchange market and in the coming weeks it may stop buying and start selling dollars," said Martín Polo, from Cohen.
"The exchange rate pressure exists, because there is uncertainty in almost all levels, but neither is there a deterioration of the reserves so great that we see that
exchange
overshooting
(overreaction) that we saw in October of last year," added Polo.
Look also
The Perón of the adjustment, which was already warning about the excesses of the distributive bid
The Guzmán plan, hacked by the dollar, wages and inflation